Sat, Oct 8 2022
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
·
Turf
·
65,326 cap
North Carolina✈ 691 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami -4
O/U 67.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2022 Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | North Carolina vs Florida A&M | -45.0W56–24 | 55.0 | W56–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/3 | North Carolina at App State | +3.0W63–61 | 56.0 | W63–61 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | North Carolina at Georgia State | -7.0W35–28 | 64.0 | W35–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | North Carolina vs Notre Dame | -2.5L32–45 | 55.0 | L32–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | North Carolina vs Virginia Tech | -9.5W41–10 | 57.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | North Carolina at Miami | +4.0W27–24 | 67.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | North Carolina at Duke | -7.0W38–35 | 70.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | North Carolina vs Pittsburgh | -2.5W42–24 | 65.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | North Carolina at Virginia | -7.0W31–28 | 61.5 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | North Carolina at Wake Forest | +4.5W36–34 | 79.0 | W36–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | -21.5L17–21 | 63.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | North Carolina vs NC State | -6.5L27–30 | 56.0 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | North Carolina vs Clemson | +7.5L10–39 | 64.0 | L10–39 | U | N |
| Wed 12/28 | North Carolina vs Oregon | +13.0L27–28 | 76.0 | L27–28 | U | Y |
Miami 2022 Schedule
Miami's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Miami vs Bethune-Cookman | -49.5W70–13 | 60.5 | W70–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Miami vs Southern Miss | -27.5W30–7 | 51.0 | W30–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Miami at Texas A&M | +6.5L9–17 | 45.5 | L9–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Miami vs Middle Tennessee | -25.5L31–45 | 53.5 | L31–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Miami vs North Carolina | -4.0L24–27 | 67.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Miami at Virginia Tech | -9.0W20–14 | 48.5 | W20–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Miami vs Duke | -10.0L21–45 | 59.0 | L21–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Miami at Virginia | -3.0W14–12 | 48.5 | W14–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Miami vs Florida State | +6.5L3–45 | 54.0 | L3–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Miami at Georgia Tech | +2.0W35–14 | 43.5 | W35–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Miami at Clemson | +19.0L10–40 | 47.5 | L10–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Miami vs Pittsburgh | +5.5L16–42 | 43.0 | L16–42 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +19.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
13.0 — 73.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Carolina with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
21–17 (55%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Gene Chizik
Yr 1
#1
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Josh Gattis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Steele
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

