North Carolina at Miami Week 6 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Miami Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 8 2022 · Week 6 · 🏟 Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL · Turf · 65,326 cap
North Carolina✈ 691 miSame TZ
27 24
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
37
UNC +4
Miami
29
P&R Line North Carolina -8
P&R Total O/U 65
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Miami -4 · O/U 67.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami -4
O/U 67.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Miami Coming off BYE
North Carolina 2022 Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.0W56–2455.0W56–24ON
Sat 9/3North Carolina at App State+3.0W63–6156.0W63–61OY
Sat 9/10North Carolina at Georgia State-7.0W35–2864.0W35–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.5L32–4555.0L32–45ON
Sat 10/1North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.5W41–1057.0W41–10UY
Sat 10/8North Carolina at Miami+4.0W27–2467.5W27–24UY
Sat 10/15North Carolina at Duke-7.0W38–3570.0W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.5W42–2465.5W42–24OY
Sat 11/5North Carolina at Virginia-7.0W31–2861.5W31–28UN
Sat 11/12North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.5W36–3479.0W36–34UY
Sat 11/19North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.5L17–2163.5L17–21UN
Fri 11/25North Carolina vs NC State-6.5L27–3056.0L27–30ON
Sat 12/3North Carolina vs Clemson+7.5L10–3964.0L10–39UN
Wed 12/28North Carolina vs Oregon+13.0L27–2876.0L27–28UY
Miami 2022 Schedule
Miami's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-49.5W70–1360.5W70–13OY
Sat 9/10Miami vs Southern Miss-27.5W30–751.0W30–7UN
Sat 9/17Miami at Texas A&M+6.5L9–1745.5L9–17UN
Sat 9/24Miami vs Middle Tennessee-25.5L31–4553.5L31–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/8Miami vs North Carolina-4.0L24–2767.5L24–27UN
Sat 10/15Miami at Virginia Tech-9.0W20–1448.5W20–14UN
Sat 10/22Miami vs Duke-10.0L21–4559.0L21–45ON
Sat 10/29Miami at Virginia-3.0W14–1248.5W14–12UN
Sat 11/5Miami vs Florida State+6.5L3–4554.0L3–45UN
Sat 11/12Miami at Georgia Tech+2.0W35–1443.5W35–14OY
Sat 11/19Miami at Clemson+19.0L10–4047.5L10–40ON
Sat 11/26Miami vs Pittsburgh+5.5L16–4243.0L16–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina
+0.452
Miami
+0.421
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+0.623
Miami
+0.610
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina
0.123
Miami
0.213
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+8.230
Miami
+8.006
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina
+0.876
Miami
+0.925
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina
70.3
Miami
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Miami
24.1
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Miami
27.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Miami
2.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #20
3.00
Miami #94
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #80
2.00
Miami #22
0.33
North Carolina +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
64.6
Miami #1
44.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
23.0
Miami #100
44.2
North Carolina +19.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
13.0 — 73.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
21–17 (55%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 2 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Josh Gattis Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Steele Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself