Duke at Pittsburgh Week 12 College Football Matchup Duke at Pittsburgh Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 19 2022 · Week 12 · 🏟 Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh, PA · Turf · 68,400 cap
Duke✈ 313 miSame TZ
Away
26 28
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Duke
24
Pittsburgh
30
P&R Line Pittsburgh -6
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -6.5 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Duke, while Game Control favors Pittsburgh. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Duke wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Pittsburgh wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -6.5
O/U 49.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Duke 2022 Schedule
Duke's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Duke vs Temple-9.5W30–051.5W30–0UY
Sat 9/10Duke at Northwestern+10.0W31–2356.5W31–23UY
Sat 9/17Duke vs North Carolina A&T-30.5W49–2053.0W49–20ON
Sat 9/24Duke at Kansas+7.5L27–3566.0L27–35UN
Sat 10/1Duke vs Virginia-2.0W38–1755.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/8Duke at Georgia Tech-3.5L20–2354.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/15Duke vs North Carolina+7.0L35–3870.0L35–38OY
Sat 10/22Duke at Miami+10.0W45–2159.0W45–21OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/4Duke at Boston College-11.5W38–3147.0W38–31ON
Sat 11/12Duke vs Virginia Tech-10.0W24–750.0W24–7UY
Sat 11/19Duke at Pittsburgh+6.5L26–2849.0L26–28OY
Sat 11/26Duke vs Wake Forest+3.0W34–3167.0W34–31UY
Wed 12/28Duke vs UCF-3.5W30–1363.0W30–13UY
Pittsburgh 2022 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1Pittsburgh vs West Virginia-7.5W38–3150.0W38–31ON
Sat 9/10Pittsburgh vs Tennessee+6.0L27–3463.0L27–34UN
Sat 9/17Pittsburgh at Western Michigan-10.0W34–1346.0W34–13OY
Sat 9/24Pittsburgh vs Rhode Island-32.5W45–2455.0W45–24ON
Sat 10/1Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech-21.5L21–2647.0L21–26UN
Sat 10/8Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech-14.5W45–2942.0W45–29OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Pittsburgh at Louisville+1.5L10–2455.0L10–24UN
Sat 10/29Pittsburgh at North Carolina+2.5L24–4265.5L24–42ON
Sat 11/5Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-3.5W19–947.5W19–9UY
Sat 11/12Pittsburgh at Virginia-5.5W37–741.5W37–7OY
Sat 11/19Pittsburgh vs Duke-6.5W28–2649.0W28–26ON
Sat 11/26Pittsburgh at Miami-5.5W42–1643.0W42–16OY
Fri 12/30Pittsburgh vs UCLA+9.0W37–3555.0W37–35OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Duke
+0.304
Pittsburgh
+0.364
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Duke
+0.345
Pittsburgh
+0.562
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Duke
0.199
Pittsburgh
0.221
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Duke
+7.716
Pittsburgh
+7.793
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Duke
+0.805
Pittsburgh
+0.874
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Duke
68.2
Pittsburgh
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Duke Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Duke
4.1
Pittsburgh
9.1
Offense Rating
Duke
14.3
Pittsburgh
19.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Duke
10.2
Pittsburgh
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Duke Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Duke #26
1.30
Pittsburgh #70
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #13
0.40
Pittsburgh #40
1.22
Duke +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Duke #1
60.5
Pittsburgh #1
62.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Duke #48
28.8
Pittsburgh #18
21.6
Pittsburgh +2.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Duke
Mike Elko #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kevin Johns Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Smith Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
53–37 (59%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Frank Cignetti Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself