Sat, Sep 10 2022
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
North Carolina✈ 338 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -7
O/U 64.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2022 Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | North Carolina vs Florida A&M | -45.0W56–24 | 55.0 | W56–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/3 | North Carolina at App State | +3.0W63–61 | 56.0 | W63–61 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | North Carolina at Georgia State | -7.0W35–28 | 64.0 | W35–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | North Carolina vs Notre Dame | -2.5L32–45 | 55.0 | L32–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | North Carolina vs Virginia Tech | -9.5W41–10 | 57.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | North Carolina at Miami | +4.0W27–24 | 67.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | North Carolina at Duke | -7.0W38–35 | 70.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | North Carolina vs Pittsburgh | -2.5W42–24 | 65.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | North Carolina at Virginia | -7.0W31–28 | 61.5 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | North Carolina at Wake Forest | +4.5W36–34 | 79.0 | W36–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | -21.5L17–21 | 63.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | North Carolina vs NC State | -6.5L27–30 | 56.0 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | North Carolina vs Clemson | +7.5L10–39 | 64.0 | L10–39 | U | N |
| Wed 12/28 | North Carolina vs Oregon | +13.0L27–28 | 76.0 | L27–28 | U | Y |
Georgia State 2022 Schedule
Georgia State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Georgia State at South Carolina | +12.5L14–35 | 55.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Georgia State vs North Carolina | +7.0L28–35 | 64.0 | L28–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Georgia State vs Charlotte | -19.5L41–42 | 64.0 | L41–42 | O | N |
| Thu 9/22 | Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina | +2.5L24–41 | 63.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Georgia State at Army | +8.5W31–14 | 54.0 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Georgia State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5W41–33 | 67.5 | W41–33 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/19 | Georgia State at App State | +9.5L17–42 | 60.5 | L17–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Georgia State vs Old Dominion | -3.5W31–17 | 53.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Georgia State at Southern Miss | +2.0W42–14 | 47.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Georgia State vs UL Monroe | -13.5L28–31 | 59.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Georgia State at James Madison | +10.0L40–42 | 51.5 | L40–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Georgia State at Marshall | +6.5L23–28 | 45.5 | L23–28 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +5.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +65.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
13.7 — 64.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
21–17 (55%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Gene Chizik
Yr 1
#1
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
30–30 (50%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Trent McKnight
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Fuqua
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓