North Carolina at Virginia Week 10 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Virginia Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 5 2022 · Week 10 · 🏟 Scott Stadium Charlottesville, VA · Turf · 61,500 cap
North Carolina✈ 149 miSame TZ
31 28
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
37
UNC -7
Virginia
22
P&R Line North Carolina -14.5
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas North Carolina -7 · O/U 61.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -7
O/U 61.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Virginia 2nd straight Home Game
North Carolina 2022 Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.0W56–2455.0W56–24ON
Sat 9/3North Carolina at App State+3.0W63–6156.0W63–61OY
Sat 9/10North Carolina at Georgia State-7.0W35–2864.0W35–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.5L32–4555.0L32–45ON
Sat 10/1North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.5W41–1057.0W41–10UY
Sat 10/8North Carolina at Miami+4.0W27–2467.5W27–24UY
Sat 10/15North Carolina at Duke-7.0W38–3570.0W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.5W42–2465.5W42–24OY
Sat 11/5North Carolina at Virginia-7.0W31–2861.5W31–28UN
Sat 11/12North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.5W36–3479.0W36–34UY
Sat 11/19North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.5L17–2163.5L17–21UN
Fri 11/25North Carolina vs NC State-6.5L27–3056.0L27–30ON
Sat 12/3North Carolina vs Clemson+7.5L10–3964.0L10–39UN
Wed 12/28North Carolina vs Oregon+13.0L27–2876.0L27–28UY
Virginia 2022 Schedule
Virginia's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Virginia vs Richmond-22.5W34–1762.0W34–17UN
Sat 9/10Virginia at Illinois+4.0L3–2455.0L3–24UN
Sat 9/17Virginia vs Old Dominion-8.0W16–1452.5W16–14UN
Fri 9/23Virginia at Syracuse+9.5L20–2253.5L20–22UY
Sat 10/1Virginia at Duke+2.0L17–3855.0L17–38UN
Sat 10/8Virginia vs Louisville-1.5L17–3447.5L17–34ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/20Virginia at Georgia Tech+3.5W16–948.0W16–9UY
Sat 10/29Virginia vs Miami+3.0L12–1448.5L12–14UY
Sat 11/5Virginia vs North Carolina+7.0L28–3161.5L28–31UY
Sat 11/12Virginia vs Pittsburgh+5.5L7–3741.5L7–37ON
Sat 11/19Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-2.044.5
Sat 11/26Virginia at Virginia Tech+1.540.0
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina
+0.432
Virginia
+0.370
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+0.603
Virginia
+0.445
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina
0.123
Virginia
0.152
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+8.005
Virginia
+7.314
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina
+0.870
Virginia
+0.879
Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina
70.3
Virginia
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Virginia
7.0
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Virginia
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Virginia
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #20
2.29
Virginia #134
0.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #80
1.71
Virginia #93
1.00
North Carolina +2.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
59.7
Virginia #1
39.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
24.9
Virginia #94
42.9
North Carolina +20.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
21–17 (55%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 2 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Des Kitchings Yr 1 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself