Matchup Prediction
UCF
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UCF entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UCF wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
UCF wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Duke -3.5
O/U 63.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
UCF 2022 Schedule
UCF's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | UCF vs South Carolina State | -43.5W56–10 | 58.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/9 | UCF vs Louisville | -5.5L14–20 | 62.0 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UCF at Florida Atlantic | -7.5W40–14 | 61.5 | W40–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | UCF vs Georgia Tech | -21.0W27–10 | 56.5 | W27–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/5 | UCF vs SMU | -3.0W41–19 | 65.0 | W41–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/13 | UCF vs Temple | -23.5W70–13 | 46.5 | W70–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | UCF at East Carolina | -5.5L13–34 | 63.0 | L13–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | UCF vs Cincinnati | -1.5W25–21 | 55.5 | W25–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | UCF at Memphis | -3.0W35–28 | 60.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | UCF at Tulane | +1.0W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UCF vs Navy | -14.5L14–17 | 53.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | UCF at South Florida | -20.0W46–39 | 67.5 | W46–39 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | UCF at Tulane | +3.5L28–45 | 57.5 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Wed 12/28 | UCF vs Duke | +3.5L13–30 | 63.0 | L13–30 | U | N |
Duke 2022 Schedule
Duke's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Duke vs Temple | -9.5W30–0 | 51.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Duke at Northwestern | +10.0W31–23 | 56.5 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Duke vs North Carolina A&T | -30.5W49–20 | 53.0 | W49–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Duke at Kansas | +7.5L27–35 | 66.0 | L27–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Duke vs Virginia | -2.0W38–17 | 55.0 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Duke at Georgia Tech | -3.5L20–23 | 54.0 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Duke vs North Carolina | +7.0L35–38 | 70.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Duke at Miami | +10.0W45–21 | 59.0 | W45–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/4 | Duke at Boston College | -11.5W38–31 | 47.0 | W38–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Duke vs Virginia Tech | -10.0W24–7 | 50.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Duke at Pittsburgh | +6.5L26–28 | 49.0 | L26–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Duke vs Wake Forest | +3.0W34–31 | 67.0 | W34–31 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/28 | Duke vs UCF | -3.5W30–13 | 63.0 | W30–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UCF Edge
UCF +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +6.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Duke
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Duke
79.9 — 7.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Duke won by 17
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UCF. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
9–4 (69%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Gibbs
Yr 1
#1
Duke
Mike Elko #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kevin Johns
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Smith
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓