Virginia Tech at North Carolina Week 5 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at North Carolina Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Oct 1 2022 · Week 5 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 118 miSame TZ
10 41
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
18
UNC -9.5
North Carolina
38
P&R Line North Carolina -20
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas North Carolina -9.5 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors North Carolina, while Game Control favors Virginia Tech. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
78.1%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Game Control
58.3%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -9.5
O/U 57.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 North Carolina 2nd straight Home Game
Virginia Tech 2022 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Virginia Tech at Old Dominion-6.0L17–2048.5L17–20UN
Sat 9/10Virginia Tech vs Boston College-2.5W27–1045.0W27–10UY
Sat 9/17Virginia Tech vs Wofford-39.0W27–745.0W27–7UN
Thu 9/22Virginia Tech vs West Virginia+2.0L10–3349.5L10–33UN
Sat 10/1Virginia Tech at North Carolina+9.5L10–4157.0L10–41UN
Sat 10/8Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh+14.5L29–4542.0L29–45ON
Sat 10/15Virginia Tech vs Miami+9.0L14–2048.5L14–20UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/27Virginia Tech at NC State+13.0L21–2239.0L21–22OY
Sat 11/5Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech-4.0L27–2840.5L27–28ON
Sat 11/12Virginia Tech at Duke+10.0L7–2450.0L7–24UN
Sat 11/19Virginia Tech at Liberty+10.5W23–2246.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/26Virginia Tech vs Virginia-1.540.0
North Carolina 2022 Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.0W56–2455.0W56–24ON
Sat 9/3North Carolina at App State+3.0W63–6156.0W63–61OY
Sat 9/10North Carolina at Georgia State-7.0W35–2864.0W35–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.5L32–4555.0L32–45ON
Sat 10/1North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.5W41–1057.0W41–10UY
Sat 10/8North Carolina at Miami+4.0W27–2467.5W27–24UY
Sat 10/15North Carolina at Duke-7.0W38–3570.0W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.5W42–2465.5W42–24OY
Sat 11/5North Carolina at Virginia-7.0W31–2861.5W31–28UN
Sat 11/12North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.5W36–3479.0W36–34UY
Sat 11/19North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.5L17–2163.5L17–21UN
Fri 11/25North Carolina vs NC State-6.5L27–3056.0L27–30ON
Sat 12/3North Carolina vs Clemson+7.5L10–3964.0L10–39UN
Wed 12/28North Carolina vs Oregon+13.0L27–2876.0L27–28UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech
+0.389
North Carolina
+0.468
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech
+0.554
North Carolina
+0.654
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech
0.185
North Carolina
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech
+7.124
North Carolina
+8.325
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech
+0.859
North Carolina
+0.843
Virginia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech
71.6
North Carolina
70.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
North Carolina
-0.2
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.4
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.5
North Carolina
16.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #87
0.00
North Carolina #20
2.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #114
0.67
North Carolina #80
2.67
North Carolina +2.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
68.7
North Carolina #1
59.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #86
19.0
North Carolina #49
27.5
Virginia Tech +9.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Carolina
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
North Carolina
87.1 — 5.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 31
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 1 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
21–17 (55%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 2 #1
DC Gene Chizik Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself