Sun, Aug 28 2022
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Week 1
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🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
·
Turf
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62,980 cap
Florida A&M✈ 485 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -45.0
O/U 55.0
Bovada
Florida A&M 2022 Schedule
Florida A&M's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Florida A&M at North Carolina | +45.0L24–56 | 55.0 | L24–56 | O | Y |
North Carolina 2022 Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | North Carolina vs Florida A&M | -45.0W56–24 | 55.0 | W56–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/3 | North Carolina at App State | +3.0W63–61 | 56.0 | W63–61 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | North Carolina at Georgia State | -7.0W35–28 | 64.0 | W35–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | North Carolina vs Notre Dame | -2.5L32–45 | 55.0 | L32–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | North Carolina vs Virginia Tech | -9.5W41–10 | 57.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | North Carolina at Miami | +4.0W27–24 | 67.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | North Carolina at Duke | -7.0W38–35 | 70.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | North Carolina vs Pittsburgh | -2.5W42–24 | 65.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | North Carolina at Virginia | -7.0W31–28 | 61.5 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | North Carolina at Wake Forest | +4.5W36–34 | 79.0 | W36–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | -21.5L17–21 | 63.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | North Carolina vs NC State | -6.5L27–30 | 56.0 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | North Carolina vs Clemson | +7.5L10–39 | 64.0 | L10–39 | U | N |
| Wed 12/28 | North Carolina vs Oregon | +13.0L27–28 | 76.0 | L27–28 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida A&M Edge
Florida A&M +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +48.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓