Iowa State at Kansas State Week 7 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Kansas State Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 16 2021 · Week 7 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Iowa State✈ 248 miSame TZ
33 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
25
Kansas State
27
P&R Line Kansas State -2.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -6.5 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -6.5
O/U 51.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kansas State Coming off BYE 🛋 Iowa State Coming off BYE
Iowa State 2021 Schedule
Iowa State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Iowa State vs Northern Iowa-28.5W16–1050.0W16–10UN
Sat 9/11Iowa State vs Iowa-4.0L17–2745.0L17–27UN
Sat 9/18Iowa State at UNLV-32.0W48–353.0W48–3UY
Sat 9/25Iowa State at Baylor-7.0L29–3146.0L29–31ON
Sat 10/2Iowa State vs Kansas-34.5W59–757.5W59–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Iowa State at Kansas State-6.5W33–2051.0W33–20OY
Sat 10/23Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-7.5W24–2147.0W24–21UN
Sat 10/30Iowa State at West Virginia-7.5L31–3849.0L31–38ON
Sat 11/6Iowa State vs Texas-6.0W30–759.5W30–7UY
Sat 11/13Iowa State at Texas Tech-13.0L38–4155.5L38–41ON
Sat 11/20Iowa State at Oklahoma+3.0L21–2859.0L21–28UN
Fri 11/26Iowa State vs TCU-16.0W48–1461.5W48–14OY
Wed 12/29Iowa State vs Clemson+1.5L13–2044.0L13–20UN
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kansas State vs Stanford-3.0W24–754.5W24–7UY
Sat 9/11Kansas State vs Southern Illinois-17.0W31–2355.0W31–23UN
Sat 9/18Kansas State vs Nevada+1.5W38–1751.5W38–17OY
Sat 9/25Kansas State at Oklahoma State+6.0L20–3147.5L20–31ON
Sat 10/2Kansas State vs Oklahoma+12.0L31–3753.0L31–37OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Kansas State vs Iowa State+6.5L20–3351.0L20–33ON
Sat 10/23Kansas State at Texas Tech-1.0W25–2460.5W25–24UN
Sat 10/30Kansas State vs TCU-3.5W31–1258.5W31–12UY
Sat 11/6Kansas State at Kansas-24.0W35–1056.0W35–10UY
Sat 11/13Kansas State vs West Virginia-6.0W34–1747.5W34–17OY
Sat 11/20Kansas State vs Baylor-2.5L10–2049.5L10–20UN
Fri 11/26Kansas State at Texas+3.0L17–2254.5L17–22UN
Tue 1/4Kansas State vs LSU-9.5W42–2047.0W42–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State
+0.463
Kansas State
+0.471
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State
+0.706
Kansas State
+0.654
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State
0.192
Kansas State
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State
+7.376
Kansas State
+7.766
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State
+0.845
Kansas State
+0.883
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State
72.0
Kansas State
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
4.1
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Iowa State
16.7
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #24
2.00
Kansas State #81
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #14
0.75
Kansas State #36
1.00
Iowa State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
63.8
Kansas State #1
51.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #42
24.8
Kansas State #59
38.2
Iowa State +12.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa State with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
37–29 (56%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Tom Manning Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Courtney Messingham Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself