Sat, Sep 25 2021
·
Week 4
·
🏟 McLane Stadium
Waco, TX
·
Turf
·
45,140 cap
Iowa State✈ 747 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Baylor
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Baylor entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Baylor wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Baylor wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -7
O/U 46.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Baylor
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2021 Schedule
Iowa State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Iowa State vs Northern Iowa | -28.5W16–10 | 50.0 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Iowa State vs Iowa | -4.0L17–27 | 45.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Iowa State at UNLV | -32.0W48–3 | 53.0 | W48–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Iowa State at Baylor | -7.0L29–31 | 46.0 | L29–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -34.5W59–7 | 57.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Iowa State at Kansas State | -6.5W33–20 | 51.0 | W33–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Iowa State vs Oklahoma State | -7.5W24–21 | 47.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Iowa State at West Virginia | -7.5L31–38 | 49.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Iowa State vs Texas | -6.0W30–7 | 59.5 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Iowa State at Texas Tech | -13.0L38–41 | 55.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Iowa State at Oklahoma | +3.0L21–28 | 59.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Iowa State vs TCU | -16.0W48–14 | 61.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Iowa State vs Clemson | +1.5L13–20 | 44.0 | L13–20 | U | N |
Baylor 2021 Schedule
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Baylor at Texas State | -13.5W29–20 | 52.5 | W29–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Baylor vs Texas Southern | -44.5W66–7 | 53.0 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Baylor at Kansas | -17.0W45–7 | 48.5 | W45–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Baylor vs Iowa State | +7.0W31–29 | 46.0 | W31–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Baylor at Oklahoma State | +3.5L14–24 | 47.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Baylor vs West Virginia | -1.0W45–20 | 45.0 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Baylor vs BYU | -5.5W38–24 | 52.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Baylor vs Texas | -2.0W31–24 | 61.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Baylor at TCU | -7.5L28–30 | 57.0 | L28–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Baylor vs Oklahoma | +4.0W27–14 | 63.0 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Baylor at Kansas State | +2.5W20–10 | 49.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Baylor vs Texas Tech | -14.0W27–24 | 51.5 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Baylor vs Oklahoma State | +7.0W21–16 | 45.0 | W21–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Baylor vs Ole Miss | +1.0W21–7 | 60.5 | W21–7 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Baylor
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Baylor
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Baylor
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Baylor Edge
Baylor +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Baylor Edge
Baylor +28.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Baylor
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Baylor
58.1 — 22.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Baylor won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Baylor with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
37–29 (56%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Tom Manning
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jon Heacock
Yr 1
#1
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Grimes
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ron Roberts
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓