Kansas State at Kansas Week 10 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Kansas Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 6 2021 · Week 10 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Lawrence, KS · Turf · 50,071 cap
35 10
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
42
Kansas
12
P&R Line Kansas State -29.5
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -24 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -24
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kansas State vs Stanford-3.0W24–754.5W24–7UY
Sat 9/11Kansas State vs Southern Illinois-17.0W31–2355.0W31–23UN
Sat 9/18Kansas State vs Nevada+1.5W38–1751.5W38–17OY
Sat 9/25Kansas State at Oklahoma State+6.0L20–3147.5L20–31ON
Sat 10/2Kansas State vs Oklahoma+12.0L31–3753.0L31–37OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Kansas State vs Iowa State+6.5L20–3351.0L20–33ON
Sat 10/23Kansas State at Texas Tech-1.0W25–2460.5W25–24UN
Sat 10/30Kansas State vs TCU-3.5W31–1258.5W31–12UY
Sat 11/6Kansas State at Kansas-24.0W35–1056.0W35–10UY
Sat 11/13Kansas State vs West Virginia-6.0W34–1747.5W34–17OY
Sat 11/20Kansas State vs Baylor-2.5L10–2049.5L10–20UN
Fri 11/26Kansas State at Texas+3.0L17–2254.5L17–22UN
Tue 1/4Kansas State vs LSU-9.5W42–2047.0W42–20OY
Kansas 2021 Schedule
Kansas's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Kansas vs South Dakota-11.5W17–1455.5W17–14UN
Fri 9/10Kansas at Coastal Carolina+26.5L22–4952.0L22–49ON
Sat 9/18Kansas vs Baylor+17.0L7–4548.5L7–45ON
Sat 9/25Kansas at Duke+16.5L33–5257.5L33–52ON
Sat 10/2Kansas at Iowa State+34.5L7–5957.5L7–59ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Kansas vs Texas Tech+18.5L14–4167.5L14–41UN
Sat 10/23Kansas vs Oklahoma+38.0L23–3566.5L23–35UY
Sat 10/30Kansas at Oklahoma State+28.5L3–5554.5L3–55ON
Sat 11/6Kansas vs Kansas State+24.0L10–3556.0L10–35UN
Sat 11/13Kansas at Texas+31.0W57–5661.5W57–56OY
Sat 11/20Kansas at TCU+21.0L28–3164.0L28–31UY
Sat 11/27Kansas vs West Virginia+15.5L28–3455.5L28–34OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State
+0.725
Kansas
+0.376
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State
+0.970
Kansas
+0.674
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State
0.180
Kansas
0.114
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State
+9.076
Kansas
+7.067
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State
+1.024
Kansas
+0.785
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State
68.8
Kansas
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #81
0.71
Kansas #91
0.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #36
0.86
Kansas #138
3.43
Kansas State +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
45.7
Kansas #1
12.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #59
45.8
Kansas #128
80.9
Kansas State +33.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Courtney Messingham Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
1–2 (33%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself