Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Manhattan, KS
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
Nevada✈ 1,237 mi+2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Nevada -1.5
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Nevada 2021 Schedule
Nevada's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Nevada at California | +2.5W22–17 | 52.5 | W22–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Nevada vs Idaho State | -35.0W49–10 | 56.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Nevada at Kansas State | -1.5L17–38 | 51.5 | L17–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | Nevada at Boise State | +3.5W41–31 | 59.0 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Nevada vs New Mexico State | -28.5W55–28 | 64.5 | W55–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Nevada vs Hawai'i | -14.0W34–17 | 61.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Nevada at Fresno State | +3.5L32–34 | 64.5 | L32–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/29 | Nevada vs UNLV | -19.0W51–20 | 58.0 | W51–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Nevada vs San José State | -11.5W27–24 | 55.5 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Nevada at San Diego State | +2.5L21–23 | 45.0 | L21–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Nevada vs Air Force | +1.5L39–41 | 53.5 | L39–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Nevada at Colorado State | -3.0W52–10 | 57.5 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/27 | Nevada vs Western Michigan | +7.0L24–52 | 56.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Kansas State vs Stanford | -3.0W24–7 | 54.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Kansas State vs Southern Illinois | -17.0W31–23 | 55.0 | W31–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Kansas State vs Nevada | +1.5W38–17 | 51.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Kansas State at Oklahoma State | +6.0L20–31 | 47.5 | L20–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Kansas State vs Oklahoma | +12.0L31–37 | 53.0 | L31–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Kansas State vs Iowa State | +6.5L20–33 | 51.0 | L20–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Kansas State at Texas Tech | -1.0W25–24 | 60.5 | W25–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Kansas State vs TCU | -3.5W31–12 | 58.5 | W31–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Kansas State at Kansas | -24.0W35–10 | 56.0 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Kansas State vs West Virginia | -6.0W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Kansas State vs Baylor | -2.5L10–20 | 49.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Kansas State at Texas | +3.0L17–22 | 54.5 | L17–22 | U | N |
| Tue 1/4 | Kansas State vs LSU | -9.5W42–20 | 47.0 | W42–20 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Nevada +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kansas State Edge
Kansas State +15.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
3 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Kansas State
73.4 — 11.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 21
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Jay Norvell #1
27–23 (54%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 1
#1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Courtney Messingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

