Nevada at Kansas State Week 3 College Football Matchup Nevada at Kansas State Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 18 2021 · Week 3 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Nevada✈ 1,237 mi+2 hr TZ
Away
17 38
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Nevada
20
Kansas State
33
P&R Line Kansas State -13
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Nevada -1.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Nevada -1.5
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kansas State 3rd straight Home Game
Nevada 2021 Schedule
Nevada's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Nevada at California+2.5W22–1752.5W22–17UY
Sat 9/11Nevada vs Idaho State-35.0W49–1056.5W49–10OY
Sat 9/18Nevada at Kansas State-1.5L17–3851.5L17–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/2Nevada at Boise State+3.5W41–3159.0W41–31OY
Sat 10/9Nevada vs New Mexico State-28.5W55–2864.5W55–28ON
Sat 10/16Nevada vs Hawai'i-14.0W34–1761.5W34–17UY
Sat 10/23Nevada at Fresno State+3.5L32–3464.5L32–34OY
Fri 10/29Nevada vs UNLV-19.0W51–2058.0W51–20OY
Sat 11/6Nevada vs San José State-11.5W27–2455.5W27–24UN
Sat 11/13Nevada at San Diego State+2.5L21–2345.0L21–23UY
Fri 11/19Nevada vs Air Force+1.5L39–4153.5L39–41ON
Sat 11/27Nevada at Colorado State-3.0W52–1057.5W52–10OY
Mon 12/27Nevada vs Western Michigan+7.0L24–5256.0L24–52ON
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kansas State vs Stanford-3.0W24–754.5W24–7UY
Sat 9/11Kansas State vs Southern Illinois-17.0W31–2355.0W31–23UN
Sat 9/18Kansas State vs Nevada+1.5W38–1751.5W38–17OY
Sat 9/25Kansas State at Oklahoma State+6.0L20–3147.5L20–31ON
Sat 10/2Kansas State vs Oklahoma+12.0L31–3753.0L31–37OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Kansas State vs Iowa State+6.5L20–3351.0L20–33ON
Sat 10/23Kansas State at Texas Tech-1.0W25–2460.5W25–24UN
Sat 10/30Kansas State vs TCU-3.5W31–1258.5W31–12UY
Sat 11/6Kansas State at Kansas-24.0W35–1056.0W35–10UY
Sat 11/13Kansas State vs West Virginia-6.0W34–1747.5W34–17OY
Sat 11/20Kansas State vs Baylor-2.5L10–2049.5L10–20UN
Fri 11/26Kansas State at Texas+3.0L17–2254.5L17–22UN
Tue 1/4Kansas State vs LSU-9.5W42–2047.0W42–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Nevada
+0.492
Kansas State
+0.508
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Nevada
+0.751
Kansas State
+0.586
Nevada Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Nevada
0.180
Kansas State
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Nevada
+7.289
Kansas State
+7.783
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Nevada
+0.836
Kansas State
+0.938
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Nevada
68.8
Kansas State
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Nevada
-21.6
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Nevada
4.5
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Nevada
26.1
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Nevada #48
1.00
Kansas State #81
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Nevada #75
1.00
Kansas State #36
0.00
Nevada +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Nevada #1
69.7
Kansas State #1
84.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Nevada #47
19.7
Kansas State #59
8.0
Kansas State +15.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
3 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Kansas State
73.4 — 11.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 21
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Jay Norvell #1
27–23 (54%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Matt Mumme Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Courtney Messingham Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself