Fri, Nov 26 2021
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, TX
·
Turf
·
100,119 cap
Kansas State✈ 619 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Texas wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas -3
O/U 54.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Kansas State vs Stanford | -3.0W24–7 | 54.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Kansas State vs Southern Illinois | -17.0W31–23 | 55.0 | W31–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Kansas State vs Nevada | +1.5W38–17 | 51.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Kansas State at Oklahoma State | +6.0L20–31 | 47.5 | L20–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Kansas State vs Oklahoma | +12.0L31–37 | 53.0 | L31–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Kansas State vs Iowa State | +6.5L20–33 | 51.0 | L20–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Kansas State at Texas Tech | -1.0W25–24 | 60.5 | W25–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Kansas State vs TCU | -3.5W31–12 | 58.5 | W31–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Kansas State at Kansas | -24.0W35–10 | 56.0 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Kansas State vs West Virginia | -6.0W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Kansas State vs Baylor | -2.5L10–20 | 49.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Kansas State at Texas | +3.0L17–22 | 54.5 | L17–22 | U | N |
| Tue 1/4 | Kansas State vs LSU | -9.5W42–20 | 47.0 | W42–20 | O | Y |
Texas 2021 Schedule
Texas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas vs Louisiana | -8.5W38–18 | 58.0 | W38–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas at Arkansas | -6.0L21–40 | 57.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas vs Rice | -26.0W58–0 | 52.0 | W58–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas vs Texas Tech | -9.0W70–35 | 63.0 | W70–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Texas at TCU | -3.5W32–27 | 65.5 | W32–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Texas vs Oklahoma | +4.0L48–55 | 65.5 | L48–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas vs Oklahoma State | -3.0L24–32 | 61.0 | L24–32 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Texas at Baylor | +2.0L24–31 | 61.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Texas at Iowa State | +6.0L7–30 | 59.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas vs Kansas | -31.0L56–57 | 61.5 | L56–57 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas at West Virginia | +2.5L23–31 | 56.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Texas vs Kansas State | -3.0W22–17 | 54.5 | W22–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Edge
Texas +0.58
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Edge
Texas +4.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Courtney Messingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 1
#1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Kwiatkowski
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓