Sat, Oct 30 2021
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Manhattan, KS
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
TCU✈ 450 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kansas State,
while Game Control favors TCU.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
TCU wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -3.5
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
TCU 2021 Schedule
TCU's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | TCU vs Duquesne | -42.0W45–3 | 54.5 | W45–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | TCU vs California | -11.5W34–32 | 46.5 | W34–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/25 | TCU vs SMU | -8.0L34–42 | 66.0 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | TCU vs Texas | +3.5L27–32 | 65.5 | L27–32 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | TCU at Texas Tech | -2.5W52–31 | 60.0 | W52–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | TCU at Oklahoma | +12.5L31–52 | 64.5 | L31–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | TCU vs West Virginia | -5.0L17–29 | 58.0 | L17–29 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | TCU at Kansas State | +3.5L12–31 | 58.5 | L12–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | TCU vs Baylor | +7.5W30–28 | 57.0 | W30–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | TCU at Oklahoma State | +11.0L17–63 | 53.5 | L17–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | TCU vs Kansas | -21.0W31–28 | 64.0 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | TCU at Iowa State | +16.0L14–48 | 61.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Kansas State vs Stanford | -3.0W24–7 | 54.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Kansas State vs Southern Illinois | -17.0W31–23 | 55.0 | W31–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Kansas State vs Nevada | +1.5W38–17 | 51.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Kansas State at Oklahoma State | +6.0L20–31 | 47.5 | L20–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Kansas State vs Oklahoma | +12.0L31–37 | 53.0 | L31–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Kansas State vs Iowa State | +6.5L20–33 | 51.0 | L20–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Kansas State at Texas Tech | -1.0W25–24 | 60.5 | W25–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Kansas State vs TCU | -3.5W31–12 | 58.5 | W31–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Kansas State at Kansas | -24.0W35–10 | 56.0 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Kansas State vs West Virginia | -6.0W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Kansas State vs Baylor | -2.5L10–20 | 49.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Kansas State at Texas | +3.0L17–22 | 54.5 | L17–22 | U | N |
| Tue 1/4 | Kansas State vs LSU | -9.5W42–20 | 47.0 | W42–20 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kansas State Edge
Kansas State +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
TCU Edge
TCU +5.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Kansas State
89.0 — 5.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 19
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
TCU
Gary Patterson #1
180–74 (71%)
· Yr 22 at school
OC
Doug Meacham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chad Glasgow
Yr 1
#1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Courtney Messingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓