LSU at Kansas State Week 1 College Football Matchup LSU at Kansas State Matchup - Week 1
Wed, Jan 5 2022 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 NRG Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 72,220 cap
LSU✈ 257 miSame TZ Kansas State✈ 661 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
20 42
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
LSU
20
KSU -9.5
Kansas State
30
P&R Line Kansas State -10
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -9.5 · O/U 47.0
Matchup Prediction
LSU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor LSU entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
LSU wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
LSU wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -9.5
O/U 47.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
LSU 2021 Schedule
LSU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4LSU at UCLA-2.0L27–3864.0L27–38ON
Sat 9/11LSU vs McNeese-39.0W34–766.0W34–7UN
Sat 9/18LSU vs Central Michigan-19.5W49–2161.0W49–21OY
Sat 9/25LSU at Mississippi State-1.5W28–2554.5W28–25UY
Sat 10/2LSU vs Auburn-2.5L19–2457.0L19–24UN
Sat 10/9LSU at Kentucky+2.0L21–4250.5L21–42ON
Sat 10/16LSU vs Florida+12.5W49–4261.0W49–42OY
Sat 10/23LSU at Ole Miss+9.0L17–3176.5L17–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6LSU at Alabama+29.5L14–2066.5L14–20UY
Sat 11/13LSU vs Arkansas+3.0L13–1659.5L13–16UY
Sat 11/20LSU vs UL Monroe-29.0W27–1457.5W27–14UN
Sat 11/27LSU vs Texas A&M+6.0W27–2447.0W27–24OY
Tue 1/4LSU vs Kansas State+9.5L20–4247.0L20–42ON
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kansas State vs Stanford-3.0W24–754.5W24–7UY
Sat 9/11Kansas State vs Southern Illinois-17.0W31–2355.0W31–23UN
Sat 9/18Kansas State vs Nevada+1.5W38–1751.5W38–17OY
Sat 9/25Kansas State at Oklahoma State+6.0L20–3147.5L20–31ON
Sat 10/2Kansas State vs Oklahoma+12.0L31–3753.0L31–37OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Kansas State vs Iowa State+6.5L20–3351.0L20–33ON
Sat 10/23Kansas State at Texas Tech-1.0W25–2460.5W25–24UN
Sat 10/30Kansas State vs TCU-3.5W31–1258.5W31–12UY
Sat 11/6Kansas State at Kansas-24.0W35–1056.0W35–10UY
Sat 11/13Kansas State vs West Virginia-6.0W34–1747.5W34–17OY
Sat 11/20Kansas State vs Baylor-2.5L10–2049.5L10–20UN
Fri 11/26Kansas State at Texas+3.0L17–2254.5L17–22UN
Tue 1/4Kansas State vs LSU-9.5W42–2047.0W42–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
LSU
+0.414
Kansas State
+0.478
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
LSU
+0.679
Kansas State
+0.686
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
LSU
0.173
Kansas State
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
LSU
+7.528
Kansas State
+8.057
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
LSU
+0.814
Kansas State
+0.903
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
LSU
72.2
Kansas State
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
LSU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
LSU
16.9
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
LSU
24.9
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
LSU
8.0
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? LSU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
LSU #74
0.82
Kansas State #81
0.55
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
LSU #79
1.00
Kansas State #36
0.64
LSU +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? LSU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
LSU #1
51.6
Kansas State #1
49.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
LSU #62
34.4
Kansas State #59
41.3
LSU +2.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
95.9 — 2.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 22
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on LSU, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
LSU
Ed Orgeron #1
47–15 (76%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Jake Peetz Yr 1 #1
DC Daronte Jones Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Courtney Messingham Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself