Baylor at Kansas State Week 12 College Football Matchup Baylor at Kansas State Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 20 2021 · Week 12 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Baylor✈ 528 miSame TZ
Away
20 10
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Baylor
24
Kansas State
25
P&R Line Kansas State -1
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -2.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Baylor has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Baylor entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Baylor wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Baylor wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -2.5
O/U 49.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Baylor · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kansas State 2nd straight Home Game
Baylor 2021 Schedule
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Baylor at Texas State-13.5W29–2052.5W29–20UN
Sat 9/11Baylor vs Texas Southern-44.5W66–753.0W66–7OY
Sat 9/18Baylor at Kansas-17.0W45–748.5W45–7OY
Sat 9/25Baylor vs Iowa State+7.0W31–2946.0W31–29OY
Sat 10/2Baylor at Oklahoma State+3.5L14–2447.0L14–24UN
Sat 10/9Baylor vs West Virginia-1.0W45–2045.0W45–20OY
Sat 10/16Baylor vs BYU-5.5W38–2452.5W38–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Baylor vs Texas-2.0W31–2461.5W31–24UY
Sat 11/6Baylor at TCU-7.5L28–3057.0L28–30ON
Sat 11/13Baylor vs Oklahoma+4.0W27–1463.0W27–14UY
Sat 11/20Baylor at Kansas State+2.5W20–1049.5W20–10UY
Sat 11/27Baylor vs Texas Tech-14.0W27–2451.5W27–24UN
Sat 12/4Baylor vs Oklahoma State+7.0W21–1645.0W21–16UY
Sat 1/1Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.0W21–760.5W21–7UY
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kansas State vs Stanford-3.0W24–754.5W24–7UY
Sat 9/11Kansas State vs Southern Illinois-17.0W31–2355.0W31–23UN
Sat 9/18Kansas State vs Nevada+1.5W38–1751.5W38–17OY
Sat 9/25Kansas State at Oklahoma State+6.0L20–3147.5L20–31ON
Sat 10/2Kansas State vs Oklahoma+12.0L31–3753.0L31–37OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Kansas State vs Iowa State+6.5L20–3351.0L20–33ON
Sat 10/23Kansas State at Texas Tech-1.0W25–2460.5W25–24UN
Sat 10/30Kansas State vs TCU-3.5W31–1258.5W31–12UY
Sat 11/6Kansas State at Kansas-24.0W35–1056.0W35–10UY
Sat 11/13Kansas State vs West Virginia-6.0W34–1747.5W34–17OY
Sat 11/20Kansas State vs Baylor-2.5L10–2049.5L10–20UN
Fri 11/26Kansas State at Texas+3.0L17–2254.5L17–22UN
Tue 1/4Kansas State vs LSU-9.5W42–2047.0W42–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Baylor PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Baylor
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Baylor
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Baylor
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Baylor
+0.497
Kansas State
+0.441
Baylor Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Baylor
+0.628
Kansas State
+0.616
Baylor Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Baylor
0.200
Kansas State
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Baylor Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Baylor
+7.278
Kansas State
+7.071
Baylor Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Baylor
+0.857
Kansas State
+0.846
Baylor Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Baylor
68.7
Kansas State
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Baylor Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Baylor
3.6
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Baylor
16.6
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Baylor
13.1
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Baylor Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Baylor #54
1.22
Kansas State #81
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Baylor #3
0.44
Kansas State #36
0.78
Baylor +0.56
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Baylor Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Baylor #1
62.1
Kansas State #1
55.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Baylor #18
23.8
Kansas State #59
37.1
Baylor +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Baylor. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jeff Grimes Yr 1 #1
DC Ron Roberts Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Courtney Messingham Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself