Wed, Dec 29 2021
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Camping World Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
65,000 cap
Clemson✈ 432 miSame TZ
Iowa State✈ 1,156 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Iowa State,
while Game Control favors Clemson.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Clemson wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Clemson -1.5
O/U 44.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Clemson
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Clemson 2021 Schedule
Clemson's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Clemson vs Georgia | -3.0L3–10 | 51.5 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Clemson vs South Carolina State | -50.5W49–3 | 56.0 | W49–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Clemson vs Georgia Tech | -27.5W14–8 | 52.5 | W14–8 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Clemson at NC State | -10.5L21–27 | 46.5 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Clemson vs Boston College | -14.5W19–13 | 46.5 | W19–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/15 | Clemson at Syracuse | -12.5W17–14 | 44.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Clemson at Pittsburgh | +3.5L17–27 | 47.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Clemson vs Florida State | -9.5W30–20 | 47.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Clemson at Louisville | -3.5W30–24 | 46.0 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Clemson vs UConn | -40.5W44–7 | 50.5 | W44–7 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Clemson vs Wake Forest | -3.5W48–27 | 57.0 | W48–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Clemson at South Carolina | -11.5W30–0 | 42.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Clemson vs Iowa State | -1.5W20–13 | 44.0 | W20–13 | U | Y |
Iowa State 2021 Schedule
Iowa State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Iowa State vs Northern Iowa | -28.5W16–10 | 50.0 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Iowa State vs Iowa | -4.0L17–27 | 45.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Iowa State at UNLV | -32.0W48–3 | 53.0 | W48–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Iowa State at Baylor | -7.0L29–31 | 46.0 | L29–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -34.5W59–7 | 57.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Iowa State at Kansas State | -6.5W33–20 | 51.0 | W33–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Iowa State vs Oklahoma State | -7.5W24–21 | 47.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Iowa State at West Virginia | -7.5L31–38 | 49.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Iowa State vs Texas | -6.0W30–7 | 59.5 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Iowa State at Texas Tech | -13.0L38–41 | 55.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Iowa State at Oklahoma | +3.0L21–28 | 59.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Iowa State vs TCU | -16.0W48–14 | 61.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Iowa State vs Clemson | +1.5L13–20 | 44.0 | L13–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Clemson
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Clemson
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Clemson
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +0.82
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Clemson Edge
Clemson +11.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Clemson
10.3 — 71.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Clemson won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
141–35 (80%)
· Yr 14 at school
OC
Tony Elliott
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brent Venables
Yr 1
#1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
37–29 (56%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Tom Manning
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jon Heacock
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓