Fri, Nov 26 2021
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Jack Trice Stadium
Ames, IA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
TCU✈ 674 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -16
O/U 61.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
TCU 2021 Schedule
TCU's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | TCU vs Duquesne | -42.0W45–3 | 54.5 | W45–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | TCU vs California | -11.5W34–32 | 46.5 | W34–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/25 | TCU vs SMU | -8.0L34–42 | 66.0 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | TCU vs Texas | +3.5L27–32 | 65.5 | L27–32 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | TCU at Texas Tech | -2.5W52–31 | 60.0 | W52–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | TCU at Oklahoma | +12.5L31–52 | 64.5 | L31–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | TCU vs West Virginia | -5.0L17–29 | 58.0 | L17–29 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | TCU at Kansas State | +3.5L12–31 | 58.5 | L12–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | TCU vs Baylor | +7.5W30–28 | 57.0 | W30–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | TCU at Oklahoma State | +11.0L17–63 | 53.5 | L17–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | TCU vs Kansas | -21.0W31–28 | 64.0 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | TCU at Iowa State | +16.0L14–48 | 61.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
Iowa State 2021 Schedule
Iowa State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Iowa State vs Northern Iowa | -28.5W16–10 | 50.0 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Iowa State vs Iowa | -4.0L17–27 | 45.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Iowa State at UNLV | -32.0W48–3 | 53.0 | W48–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Iowa State at Baylor | -7.0L29–31 | 46.0 | L29–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -34.5W59–7 | 57.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Iowa State at Kansas State | -6.5W33–20 | 51.0 | W33–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Iowa State vs Oklahoma State | -7.5W24–21 | 47.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Iowa State at West Virginia | -7.5L31–38 | 49.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Iowa State vs Texas | -6.0W30–7 | 59.5 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Iowa State at Texas Tech | -13.0L38–41 | 55.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Iowa State at Oklahoma | +3.0L21–28 | 59.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Iowa State vs TCU | -16.0W48–14 | 61.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Iowa State vs Clemson | +1.5L13–20 | 44.0 | L13–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +0.90
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +15.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Iowa State
92.9 — 5.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 34
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Iowa State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
TCU
Gary Patterson #1
180–74 (71%)
· Yr 22 at school
OC
Doug Meacham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chad Glasgow
Yr 1
#1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
37–29 (56%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Tom Manning
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jon Heacock
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓