Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Jack Trice Stadium
Ames, IA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Kansas✈ 227 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Iowa State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -34.5
O/U 57.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas 2021 Schedule
Kansas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Kansas vs South Dakota | -11.5W17–14 | 55.5 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Fri 9/10 | Kansas at Coastal Carolina | +26.5L22–49 | 52.0 | L22–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Kansas vs Baylor | +17.0L7–45 | 48.5 | L7–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Kansas at Duke | +16.5L33–52 | 57.5 | L33–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Kansas at Iowa State | +34.5L7–59 | 57.5 | L7–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Kansas vs Texas Tech | +18.5L14–41 | 67.5 | L14–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Kansas vs Oklahoma | +38.0L23–35 | 66.5 | L23–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Kansas at Oklahoma State | +28.5L3–55 | 54.5 | L3–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Kansas vs Kansas State | +24.0L10–35 | 56.0 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Kansas at Texas | +31.0W57–56 | 61.5 | W57–56 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Kansas at TCU | +21.0L28–31 | 64.0 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Kansas vs West Virginia | +15.5L28–34 | 55.5 | L28–34 | O | Y |
Iowa State 2021 Schedule
Iowa State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Iowa State vs Northern Iowa | -28.5W16–10 | 50.0 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Iowa State vs Iowa | -4.0L17–27 | 45.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Iowa State at UNLV | -32.0W48–3 | 53.0 | W48–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Iowa State at Baylor | -7.0L29–31 | 46.0 | L29–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -34.5W59–7 | 57.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Iowa State at Kansas State | -6.5W33–20 | 51.0 | W33–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Iowa State vs Oklahoma State | -7.5W24–21 | 47.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Iowa State at West Virginia | -7.5L31–38 | 49.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Iowa State vs Texas | -6.0W30–7 | 59.5 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Iowa State at Texas Tech | -13.0L38–41 | 55.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Iowa State at Oklahoma | +3.0L21–28 | 59.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Iowa State vs TCU | -16.0W48–14 | 61.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Iowa State vs Clemson | +1.5L13–20 | 44.0 | L13–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +34.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Iowa State
98.5 — 0.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 52
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Iowa State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Andy Kotelnicki
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Borland
Yr 1
#1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
37–29 (56%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Tom Manning
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jon Heacock
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓