Oklahoma State at Iowa State Week 8 College Football Matchup Oklahoma State at Iowa State Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 23 2021 · Week 8 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 446 miSame TZ
21 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oklahoma State
24
Iowa State
23
P&R Line Oklahoma State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa State -7.5 · O/U 47.0
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -7.5
O/U 47.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oklahoma State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Oklahoma State 2nd straight Road Game
Oklahoma State 2021 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Oklahoma State vs Missouri State-38.0W23–1655.0W23–16UN
Sat 9/11Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-11.5W28–2351.0W28–23UN
Sat 9/18Oklahoma State at Boise State+3.5W21–2058.5W21–20UY
Sat 9/25Oklahoma State vs Kansas State-6.0W31–2047.5W31–20OY
Sat 10/2Oklahoma State vs Baylor-3.5W24–1447.0W24–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Oklahoma State at Texas+3.0W32–2461.0W32–24UY
Sat 10/23Oklahoma State at Iowa State+7.5L21–2447.0L21–24UY
Sat 10/30Oklahoma State vs Kansas-28.5W55–354.5W55–3OY
Sat 11/6Oklahoma State at West Virginia-3.5W24–348.5W24–3UY
Sat 11/13Oklahoma State vs TCU-11.0W63–1753.5W63–17OY
Sat 11/20Oklahoma State at Texas Tech-10.0W23–055.0W23–0UY
Sat 11/27Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma-4.0W37–3350.0W37–33ON
Sat 12/4Oklahoma State vs Baylor-7.0L16–2145.0L16–21UN
Sat 1/1Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame-1.5W37–3545.5W37–35OY
Iowa State 2021 Schedule
Iowa State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Iowa State vs Northern Iowa-28.5W16–1050.0W16–10UN
Sat 9/11Iowa State vs Iowa-4.0L17–2745.0L17–27UN
Sat 9/18Iowa State at UNLV-32.0W48–353.0W48–3UY
Sat 9/25Iowa State at Baylor-7.0L29–3146.0L29–31ON
Sat 10/2Iowa State vs Kansas-34.5W59–757.5W59–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Iowa State at Kansas State-6.5W33–2051.0W33–20OY
Sat 10/23Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-7.5W24–2147.0W24–21UN
Sat 10/30Iowa State at West Virginia-7.5L31–3849.0L31–38ON
Sat 11/6Iowa State vs Texas-6.0W30–759.5W30–7UY
Sat 11/13Iowa State at Texas Tech-13.0L38–4155.5L38–41ON
Sat 11/20Iowa State at Oklahoma+3.0L21–2859.0L21–28UN
Fri 11/26Iowa State vs TCU-16.0W48–1461.5W48–14OY
Wed 12/29Iowa State vs Clemson+1.5L13–2044.0L13–20UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Oklahoma State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oklahoma State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oklahoma State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oklahoma State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oklahoma State
+0.337
Iowa State
+0.292
Oklahoma State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State
+0.575
Iowa State
+0.468
Oklahoma State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State
0.228
Iowa State
0.192
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Oklahoma State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State
+7.609
Iowa State
+7.149
Oklahoma State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State
+0.832
Iowa State
+0.798
Oklahoma State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State
69.0
Iowa State
72.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Oklahoma State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oklahoma State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oklahoma State
4.8
Iowa State
4.1
Offense Rating
Oklahoma State
19.7
Iowa State
16.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oklahoma State
14.9
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oklahoma State #53
1.00
Iowa State #24
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #8
0.60
Iowa State #14
0.60
Iowa State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oklahoma State #1
60.2
Iowa State #1
68.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #31
26.1
Iowa State #42
21.5
Iowa State +8.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Iowa State
39.8 — 26.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
140–67 (68%) · Yr 17 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 1 #1
DC Jim Knowles Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
37–29 (56%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Tom Manning Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself