West Virginia at Kansas State Week 11 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Kansas State Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 13 2021 · Week 11 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
West Virginia✈ 887 mi-1 hr TZ
17 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
17
Kansas State
32
P&R Line Kansas State -15
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -6 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors West Virginia, while Game Control favors Kansas State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
West Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -6
O/U 47.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2021 Schedule
West Virginia's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4West Virginia at Maryland-2.5L24–3056.0L24–30UN
Sat 9/11West Virginia vs Long Island University-50.0W66–056.0W66–0OY
Sat 9/18West Virginia vs Virginia Tech-2.0W27–2149.5W27–21UY
Sat 9/25West Virginia at Oklahoma+17.5L13–1656.5L13–16UY
Sat 10/2West Virginia vs Texas Tech-7.5L20–2355.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/9West Virginia at Baylor+1.0L20–4545.0L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23West Virginia at TCU+5.0W29–1758.0W29–17UY
Sat 10/30West Virginia vs Iowa State+7.5W38–3149.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/6West Virginia vs Oklahoma State+3.5L3–2448.5L3–24UN
Sat 11/13West Virginia at Kansas State+6.0L17–3447.5L17–34ON
Sat 11/20West Virginia vs Texas-2.5W31–2356.0W31–23UY
Sat 11/27West Virginia at Kansas-15.5W34–2855.5W34–28ON
Tue 12/28West Virginia vs Minnesota+5.0L6–1844.5L6–18UN
Kansas State 2021 Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kansas State vs Stanford-3.0W24–754.5W24–7UY
Sat 9/11Kansas State vs Southern Illinois-17.0W31–2355.0W31–23UN
Sat 9/18Kansas State vs Nevada+1.5W38–1751.5W38–17OY
Sat 9/25Kansas State at Oklahoma State+6.0L20–3147.5L20–31ON
Sat 10/2Kansas State vs Oklahoma+12.0L31–3753.0L31–37OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Kansas State vs Iowa State+6.5L20–3351.0L20–33ON
Sat 10/23Kansas State at Texas Tech-1.0W25–2460.5W25–24UN
Sat 10/30Kansas State vs TCU-3.5W31–1258.5W31–12UY
Sat 11/6Kansas State at Kansas-24.0W35–1056.0W35–10UY
Sat 11/13Kansas State vs West Virginia-6.0W34–1747.5W34–17OY
Sat 11/20Kansas State vs Baylor-2.5L10–2049.5L10–20UN
Fri 11/26Kansas State at Texas+3.0L17–2254.5L17–22UN
Tue 1/4Kansas State vs LSU-9.5W42–2047.0W42–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia
+0.421
Kansas State
+0.472
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia
+0.613
Kansas State
+0.675
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia
0.162
Kansas State
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia
+7.470
Kansas State
+7.213
West Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia
+0.840
Kansas State
+0.899
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia
72.9
Kansas State
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.3
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.5
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? West Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #65
1.13
Kansas State #81
0.63
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #26
0.88
Kansas State #36
0.75
West Virginia +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
39.5
Kansas State #1
51.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #78
43.3
Kansas State #59
40.8
Kansas State +11.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
94.6 — 3.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
13–12 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Gerad Parker Yr 1 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Courtney Messingham Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself