North Texas at San Diego State Week 1 College Football Matchup North Texas at San Diego State Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 27 2025 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 University Stadium Albuquerque, NM · Turf · 39,224 cap
North Texas✈ 556 mi-1 hr TZ San Diego State✈ 621 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
49 47
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Texas
27
San Diego State
28
P&R Line San Diego State -0
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 86 High
Vegas North Texas -7.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
North Texas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
North Texas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Texas -7.5
O/U 55.5
Draft Kings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Texas · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 North Texas 2nd straight Road Game
North Texas 2025 Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30North Texas vs Lamar-27.5W51–063.5W51–0UY
Sat 9/6North Texas at Western Michigan-12.0W33–3056.0W33–30ON
Sat 9/13North Texas vs Washington State-6.5W59–1057.5W59–10OY
Sat 9/20North Texas at Army-2.5W45–3850.5W45–38OY
Sat 9/27North Texas vs South Alabama-13.5W36–2263.5W36–22UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/10North Texas vs South Florida-2.5L36–6368.5L36–63ON
Sat 10/18North Texas vs UTSA-4.0W55–1764.5W55–17OY
Fri 10/24North Texas at Charlotte-25.5W54–2060.5W54–20OY
Sat 11/1North Texas vs Navy-6.5W31–1768.5W31–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15North Texas at UAB-17.5W53–2469.5W53–24OY
Sat 11/22North Texas at Rice-18.5W56–2457.0W56–24OY
Fri 11/28North Texas vs Temple-20.0W52–2565.5W52–25OY
Fri 12/5North Texas at Tulane-1.5L21–3466.5L21–34UN
Sat 12/27North Texas vs San Diego State-7.5W49–4755.5W49–47ON
San Diego State 2025 Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.5W42–053.5W42–0UY
Sat 9/6San Diego State at Washington State+2.0L13–3646.5L13–36ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San Diego State vs California+14.0W34–047.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/27San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.5W6–341.5W6–3UY
Fri 10/3San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.5W45–2440.5W45–24OY
Sat 10/11San Diego State at Nevada-6.5W44–1042.5W44–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25San Diego State at Fresno State-3.0W23–046.5W23–0UY
Sat 11/1San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.0W24–742.5W24–7UY
Sat 11/8San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.5L6–3848.5L6–38UN
Sat 11/15San Diego State vs Boise State-1.5W17–741.5W17–7UY
Sat 11/22San Diego State vs San José State-10.0W25–350.5W25–3UY
Fri 11/28San Diego State at New Mexico-1.5L17–2341.5L17–23UN
Sat 12/27San Diego State vs North Texas+7.5L47–4955.5L47–49OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
North Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Texas #2
+0.344
San Diego State #93
+0.309
North Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Texas #12
+0.390
San Diego State #127
+0.297
North Texas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Texas #108
0.137
San Diego State #78
0.152
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San Diego State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Texas #4
+7.405
San Diego State #90
+7.540
San Diego State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Texas #3
+0.866
San Diego State #76
+0.854
North Texas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Texas #3
66.2
San Diego State #17
68.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Texas
-1.3
San Diego State
3.6
Offense Rating
North Texas
15.9
San Diego State
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Texas
17.3
San Diego State
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Texas #3
2.67
San Diego State #78
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #12
0.58
San Diego State #11
0.46
North Texas +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Texas #1
67.0
San Diego State #1
61.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #7
20.4
San Diego State #25
22.7
North Texas +5.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Texas. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
11–13 (46%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Jordan Davis Yr 3 #1
DC Skyler Cassity Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 2 #1
DC Rob Aurich Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself