Sat, Nov 8 2025
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Honolulu, HI
·
Turf
·
9,000 cap
San Diego State✈ 2,609 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
San Diego State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
San Diego State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -6.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San Diego State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2025 Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | San Diego State vs Stony Brook | -19.5W42–0 | 53.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | San Diego State at Washington State | +2.0L13–36 | 46.5 | L13–36 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | San Diego State vs California | +14.0W34–0 | 47.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | San Diego State at Northern Illinois | -1.5W6–3 | 41.5 | W6–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/3 | San Diego State vs Colorado State | -4.5W45–24 | 40.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | San Diego State at Nevada | -6.5W44–10 | 42.5 | W44–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | San Diego State at Fresno State | -3.0W23–0 | 46.5 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | San Diego State vs Wyoming | -10.0W24–7 | 42.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | San Diego State at Hawai'i | -6.5L6–38 | 48.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | San Diego State vs Boise State | -1.5W17–7 | 41.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | San Diego State vs San José State | -10.0W25–3 | 50.5 | W25–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | San Diego State at New Mexico | -1.5L17–23 | 41.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | San Diego State vs North Texas | +7.5L47–49 | 55.5 | L47–49 | O | Y |
Hawai'i 2025 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Hawai'i vs Stanford | -1.5W23–20 | 53.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/30 | Hawai'i at Arizona | +13.5L6–40 | 55.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Hawai'i vs Sam Houston | -7.0W37–20 | 47.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Hawai'i vs Portland State | -35.5W23–3 | 54.5 | W23–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Hawai'i vs Fresno State | +2.5L21–23 | 47.5 | L21–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Hawai'i at Air Force | +7.0W44–35 | 52.5 | W44–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Hawai'i vs Utah State | +1.5W44–26 | 57.5 | W44–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Hawai'i at Colorado State | +2.5W31–19 | 53.5 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Hawai'i at San José State | +2.5L38–45 | 55.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Hawai'i vs San Diego State | +6.5W38–6 | 48.5 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/21 | Hawai'i at UNLV | +2.5L10–38 | 64.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Hawai'i vs Wyoming | -8.5W27–7 | 45.0 | W27–7 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/24 | Hawai'i vs California | -1.5W35–31 | 50.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +16.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Hawai'i
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Hawai'i
83.4 — 6.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Hawai'i won by 32
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on San Diego State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sean Lewis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Rob Aurich
Yr 1
#1
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
13–25 (34%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Timmy Chang
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dennis Thurman
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓