Fri, Nov 28 2025
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Apogee Stadium
Denton, TX
·
Turf
·
30,850 cap
Temple✈ 1,301 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
North Texas wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
North Texas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
North Texas -20.0
O/U 65.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Texas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Temple 2025 Schedule
Temple's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Temple at Massachusetts | -3.0W42–10 | 51.5 | W42–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Temple vs Howard | -28.0W55–7 | 47.0 | W55–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Temple vs Oklahoma | +23.5L3–42 | 50.5 | L3–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Temple at Georgia Tech | +24.5L24–45 | 52.5 | L24–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Temple vs UTSA | +6.5W27–21 | 58.5 | W27–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Temple vs Navy | +10.0L31–32 | 52.5 | L31–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Temple at Charlotte | -10.0W49–14 | 47.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Temple at Tulsa | -4.5W38–37 | 52.5 | W38–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Temple vs East Carolina | +5.5L14–45 | 58.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Temple at Army | +7.5L13–14 | 45.5 | L13–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Temple vs Tulane | +7.5L13–37 | 54.5 | L13–37 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Temple at North Texas | +20.0L25–52 | 65.5 | L25–52 | O | N |
North Texas 2025 Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | North Texas vs Lamar | -27.5W51–0 | 63.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | North Texas at Western Michigan | -12.0W33–30 | 56.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | North Texas vs Washington State | -6.5W59–10 | 57.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | North Texas at Army | -2.5W45–38 | 50.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | North Texas vs South Alabama | -13.5W36–22 | 63.5 | W36–22 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/10 | North Texas vs South Florida | -2.5L36–63 | 68.5 | L36–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | North Texas vs UTSA | -4.0W55–17 | 64.5 | W55–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | North Texas at Charlotte | -25.5W54–20 | 60.5 | W54–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | North Texas vs Navy | -6.5W31–17 | 68.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | North Texas at UAB | -17.5W53–24 | 69.5 | W53–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | North Texas at Rice | -18.5W56–24 | 57.0 | W56–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | North Texas vs Temple | -20.0W52–25 | 65.5 | W52–25 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | North Texas at Tulane | -1.5L21–34 | 66.5 | L21–34 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | North Texas vs San Diego State | -7.5W49–47 | 55.5 | W49–47 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +2.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +32.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Texas
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
North Texas
90.0 — 4.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Texas won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Texas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Temple
K. C. Keeler #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tyler Walker
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Smith
Yr 1
#1
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
11–13 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 3
#1
DC
Skyler Cassity
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓