Sat, Aug 30 2025
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Week 1
·
🏟 Apogee Stadium
Denton, TX
·
Turf
·
30,850 cap
Lamar✈ 284 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
North Texas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
North Texas -27.5
O/U 63.5
Bovada
Lamar 2025 Schedule
Lamar's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Lamar at North Texas | +27.5L0–51 | 63.5 | L0–51 | U | N |
North Texas 2025 Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | North Texas vs Lamar | -27.5W51–0 | 63.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | North Texas at Western Michigan | -12.0W33–30 | 56.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | North Texas vs Washington State | -6.5W59–10 | 57.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | North Texas at Army | -2.5W45–38 | 50.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | North Texas vs South Alabama | -13.5W36–22 | 63.5 | W36–22 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/10 | North Texas vs South Florida | -2.5L36–63 | 68.5 | L36–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | North Texas vs UTSA | -4.0W55–17 | 64.5 | W55–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | North Texas at Charlotte | -25.5W54–20 | 60.5 | W54–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | North Texas vs Navy | -6.5W31–17 | 68.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | North Texas at UAB | -17.5W53–24 | 69.5 | W53–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | North Texas at Rice | -18.5W56–24 | 57.0 | W56–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | North Texas vs Temple | -20.0W52–25 | 65.5 | W52–25 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | North Texas at Tulane | -1.5L21–34 | 66.5 | L21–34 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | North Texas vs San Diego State | -7.5W49–47 | 55.5 | W49–47 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Lamar Edge
Lamar +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +31.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓