Fri, Oct 3 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego, CA
·
Turf
·
35,000 cap
Colorado State✈ 855 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
San Diego State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
San Diego State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
San Diego State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -4.5
O/U 40.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San Diego State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Colorado State 2025 Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Colorado State at Washington | +20.5L21–38 | 52.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Colorado State vs Northern Colorado | -35.0W21–17 | 52.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Colorado State vs UTSA | +4.5L16–17 | 58.5 | L16–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Colorado State vs Washington State | -4.5L3–20 | 48.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/3 | Colorado State at San Diego State | +4.5L24–45 | 40.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Colorado State vs Fresno State | +5.5W49–21 | 47.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Colorado State vs Hawai'i | -2.5L19–31 | 53.5 | L19–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Colorado State at Wyoming | +5.5L0–28 | 46.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Colorado State vs UNLV | +5.5L10–42 | 60.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Colorado State at New Mexico | +15.5L17–20 | 53.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Colorado State at Boise State | +17.5L21–49 | 46.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Colorado State vs Air Force | +2.5L21–42 | 47.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
San Diego State 2025 Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | San Diego State vs Stony Brook | -19.5W42–0 | 53.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | San Diego State at Washington State | +2.0L13–36 | 46.5 | L13–36 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | San Diego State vs California | +14.0W34–0 | 47.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | San Diego State at Northern Illinois | -1.5W6–3 | 41.5 | W6–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/3 | San Diego State vs Colorado State | -4.5W45–24 | 40.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | San Diego State at Nevada | -6.5W44–10 | 42.5 | W44–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | San Diego State at Fresno State | -3.0W23–0 | 46.5 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | San Diego State vs Wyoming | -10.0W24–7 | 42.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | San Diego State at Hawai'i | -6.5L6–38 | 48.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | San Diego State vs Boise State | -1.5W17–7 | 41.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | San Diego State vs San José State | -10.0W25–3 | 50.5 | W25–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | San Diego State at New Mexico | -1.5L17–23 | 41.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | San Diego State vs North Texas | +7.5L47–49 | 55.5 | L47–49 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +39.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San Diego State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
San Diego State
86.6 — 5.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
San Diego State won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on San Diego State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
16–20 (44%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 1
#1
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sean Lewis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Rob Aurich
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓