San Diego State at Nevada Week 7 College Football Matchup San Diego State at Nevada Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Mackay Stadium Reno, NV · Turf · 26,000 cap
San Diego State✈ 490 miSame TZ
44 10
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
32
SDSU -6.5
Nevada
11
P&R Line San Diego State -20.5
P&R Total O/U 42.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San Diego State -6.5 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
San Diego State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San Diego State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San Diego State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -6.5
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San Diego State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2025 Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28San Diego State vs Stony Brook-19.5W42–053.5W42–0UY
Sat 9/6San Diego State at Washington State+2.0L13–3646.5L13–36ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San Diego State vs California+14.0W34–047.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/27San Diego State at Northern Illinois-1.5W6–341.5W6–3UY
Fri 10/3San Diego State vs Colorado State-4.5W45–2440.5W45–24OY
Sat 10/11San Diego State at Nevada-6.5W44–1042.5W44–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25San Diego State at Fresno State-3.0W23–046.5W23–0UY
Sat 11/1San Diego State vs Wyoming-10.0W24–742.5W24–7UY
Sat 11/8San Diego State at Hawai'i-6.5L6–3848.5L6–38UN
Sat 11/15San Diego State vs Boise State-1.5W17–741.5W17–7UY
Sat 11/22San Diego State vs San José State-10.0W25–350.5W25–3UY
Fri 11/28San Diego State at New Mexico-1.5L17–2341.5L17–23UN
Sat 12/27San Diego State vs North Texas+7.5L47–4955.5L47–49OY
Nevada 2025 Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Nevada at Penn State+45.5L11–4658.5L11–46UY
Sat 9/6Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.0W20–1756.0W20–17UN
Sat 9/13Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.0L13–1450.0L13–14UN
Sat 9/20Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.5L16–3154.5L16–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Nevada at Fresno State+12.5L17–2045.5L17–20UY
Sat 10/11Nevada vs San Diego State+6.5L10–4442.5L10–44ON
Sat 10/18Nevada at New Mexico+14.0L22–2449.5L22–24UY
Fri 10/24Nevada vs Boise State+20.5L3–2451.5L3–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Nevada at Utah State+10.0L14–5152.5L14–51ON
Sat 11/15Nevada vs San José State+10.0W55–1049.5W55–10OY
Sat 11/22Nevada at Wyoming+6.0W13–739.5W13–7UY
Sat 11/29Nevada vs UNLV+7.5L17–4253.0L17–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
San Diego State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State #93
+0.324
Nevada #129
+0.010
San Diego State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #127
+0.265
Nevada #135
-0.066
San Diego State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State #78
0.152
Nevada #100
0.144
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San Diego State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #90
+7.660
Nevada #133
+5.090
San Diego State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State #76
+0.854
Nevada #124
+0.716
San Diego State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State #17
68.3
Nevada #36
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
2.6
Nevada
-21.6
Offense Rating
San Diego State
15.6
Nevada
4.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
Nevada
26.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San Diego State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #78
1.00
Nevada #116
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #11
0.75
Nevada #134
3.00
San Diego State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San Diego State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
60.0
Nevada #1
27.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #25
20.5
Nevada #125
52.9
San Diego State +32.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San Diego State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 2 #1
DC Rob Aurich Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
3–10 (23%) · Yr 2 at school
OC David Gilbertson Yr 1 #1
DC Kane Ioane Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself