Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Apogee Stadium
Denton, TX
·
Turf
·
30,850 cap
Washington State✈ 1,405 mi+2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington State entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Washington State wins
Strong
Game Control
64.9%
Washington State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Texas -6.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Texas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Washington State 2025 Schedule
Washington State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Washington State vs Idaho | -16.5W13–10 | 50.5 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Washington State vs San Diego State | -2.0W36–13 | 46.5 | W36–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Washington State at North Texas | +6.5L10–59 | 57.5 | L10–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Washington State vs Washington | +21.0L24–59 | 51.5 | L24–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Washington State at Colorado State | +4.5W20–3 | 48.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Washington State at Ole Miss | +33.5L21–24 | 58.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Washington State at Virginia | +16.5L20–22 | 56.5 | L20–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Washington State vs Toledo | +1.5W28–7 | 44.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Washington State at Oregon State | -3.5L7–10 | 47.5 | L7–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Washington State vs Louisiana Tech | -10.0W28–3 | 43.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Washington State at James Madison | +15.0L20–24 | 44.5 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Washington State vs Oregon State | -14.0W32–8 | 42.5 | W32–8 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/22 | Washington State vs Utah State | +1.0W34–21 | 50.0 | W34–21 | O | Y |
North Texas 2025 Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | North Texas vs Lamar | -27.5W51–0 | 63.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | North Texas at Western Michigan | -12.0W33–30 | 56.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | North Texas vs Washington State | -6.5W59–10 | 57.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | North Texas at Army | -2.5W45–38 | 50.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | North Texas vs South Alabama | -13.5W36–22 | 63.5 | W36–22 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/10 | North Texas vs South Florida | -2.5L36–63 | 68.5 | L36–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | North Texas vs UTSA | -4.0W55–17 | 64.5 | W55–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | North Texas at Charlotte | -25.5W54–20 | 60.5 | W54–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | North Texas vs Navy | -6.5W31–17 | 68.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | North Texas at UAB | -17.5W53–24 | 69.5 | W53–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | North Texas at Rice | -18.5W56–24 | 57.0 | W56–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | North Texas vs Temple | -20.0W52–25 | 65.5 | W52–25 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | North Texas at Tulane | -1.5L21–34 | 66.5 | L21–34 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | North Texas vs San Diego State | -7.5W49–47 | 55.5 | W49–47 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +3.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +11.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Texas
6 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Texas
94.1 — 3.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Texas won by 49
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington State
Jimmy Rogers #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Danny Freund
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jesse Bobbit
Yr 1
#1
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
11–13 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 3
#1
DC
Skyler Cassity
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓