Fri, Nov 28 2025
·
Week 14
·
🏟 University Stadium
Albuquerque, NM
·
Turf
·
39,224 cap
San Diego State✈ 621 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors New Mexico,
while Game Control favors San Diego State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -1.5
O/U 41.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San Diego State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2025 Schedule
San Diego State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | San Diego State vs Stony Brook | -19.5W42–0 | 53.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | San Diego State at Washington State | +2.0L13–36 | 46.5 | L13–36 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | San Diego State vs California | +14.0W34–0 | 47.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | San Diego State at Northern Illinois | -1.5W6–3 | 41.5 | W6–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/3 | San Diego State vs Colorado State | -4.5W45–24 | 40.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | San Diego State at Nevada | -6.5W44–10 | 42.5 | W44–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | San Diego State at Fresno State | -3.0W23–0 | 46.5 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | San Diego State vs Wyoming | -10.0W24–7 | 42.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | San Diego State at Hawai'i | -6.5L6–38 | 48.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | San Diego State vs Boise State | -1.5W17–7 | 41.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | San Diego State vs San José State | -10.0W25–3 | 50.5 | W25–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | San Diego State at New Mexico | -1.5L17–23 | 41.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | San Diego State vs North Texas | +7.5L47–49 | 55.5 | L47–49 | O | Y |
New Mexico 2025 Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | New Mexico at Michigan | +36.5L17–34 | 52.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | New Mexico vs Idaho State | -17.5W32–22 | 60.0 | W32–22 | U | N |
| Fri 9/12 | New Mexico at UCLA | +15.5W35–10 | 52.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | New Mexico vs New Mexico State | -16.5W38–20 | 53.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/3 | New Mexico at San José State | +1.5L28–35 | 58.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | New Mexico at Boise State | +14.5L25–41 | 58.5 | L25–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | New Mexico vs Nevada | -14.0W24–22 | 49.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | New Mexico vs Utah State | -3.0W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | New Mexico at UNLV | +3.5W40–35 | 61.5 | W40–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | New Mexico vs Colorado State | -15.5W20–17 | 53.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | New Mexico at Air Force | -3.5W20–3 | 53.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | New Mexico vs San Diego State | +1.5W23–17 | 41.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/26 | New Mexico vs Minnesota | +1.5L17–20 | 44.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +10.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sean Lewis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Rob Aurich
Yr 1
#1
New Mexico
Jason Eck #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Luke Schleusner
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓