Sat, Oct 18 2025
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Apogee Stadium
Denton, TX
·
Turf
·
30,850 cap
UTSA✈ 273 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
North Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
North Texas wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Texas -4
O/U 64.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Texas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UTSA 2025 Schedule
UTSA's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | UTSA at Texas A&M | +21.5L24–42 | 56.5 | L24–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | UTSA vs Texas State | -4.5L36–43 | 64.5 | L36–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | UTSA vs Incarnate Word | -21.0W48–20 | 62.5 | W48–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | UTSA at Colorado State | -4.5W17–16 | 58.5 | W17–16 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | UTSA at Temple | -6.5L21–27 | 58.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | UTSA vs Rice | -8.5W61–13 | 48.5 | W61–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | UTSA at North Texas | +4.0L17–55 | 64.5 | L17–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/30 | UTSA vs Tulane | +5.5W48–26 | 54.5 | W48–26 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/6 | UTSA at South Florida | +14.0L23–55 | 66.5 | L23–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | UTSA at Charlotte | -16.5W28–7 | 57.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | UTSA vs East Carolina | +2.0W58–24 | 62.5 | W58–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | UTSA vs Army | -8.5L24–27 | 50.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Fri 12/26 | UTSA vs Florida International | -7.0W57–20 | 62.5 | W57–20 | O | Y |
North Texas 2025 Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | North Texas vs Lamar | -27.5W51–0 | 63.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | North Texas at Western Michigan | -12.0W33–30 | 56.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | North Texas vs Washington State | -6.5W59–10 | 57.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | North Texas at Army | -2.5W45–38 | 50.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | North Texas vs South Alabama | -13.5W36–22 | 63.5 | W36–22 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/10 | North Texas vs South Florida | -2.5L36–63 | 68.5 | L36–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | North Texas vs UTSA | -4.0W55–17 | 64.5 | W55–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | North Texas at Charlotte | -25.5W54–20 | 60.5 | W54–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | North Texas vs Navy | -6.5W31–17 | 68.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | North Texas at UAB | -17.5W53–24 | 69.5 | W53–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | North Texas at Rice | -18.5W56–24 | 57.0 | W56–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | North Texas vs Temple | -20.0W52–25 | 65.5 | W52–25 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | North Texas at Tulane | -1.5L21–34 | 66.5 | L21–34 | U | N |
| Sat 12/27 | North Texas vs San Diego State | -7.5W49–47 | 55.5 | W49–47 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +12.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Texas
6 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
North Texas
76.4 — 12.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Texas won by 38
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Texas with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UTSA
Jeff Traylor #1
45–20 (69%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Justin Burke
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jess Loepp
Yr 3
#1
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
11–13 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 3
#1
DC
Skyler Cassity
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓