Sat, Nov 11 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
Washington State✈ 664 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors California,
while Game Control favors Washington State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
California wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Washington State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
California -1.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Washington State 2023 Schedule
Washington State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Washington State at Colorado State | -9.5W50–24 | 54.0 | W50–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Washington State vs Wisconsin | +5.0W31–22 | 58.0 | W31–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Washington State vs Northern Colorado | -48.0W64–21 | 55.0 | W64–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Washington State vs Oregon State | +3.0W38–35 | 58.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Washington State at UCLA | +3.0L17–25 | 60.0 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Washington State vs Arizona | -7.5L6–44 | 57.5 | L6–44 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Washington State at Oregon | +19.5L24–38 | 60.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Washington State at Arizona State | -4.5L27–38 | 49.0 | L27–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Washington State vs Stanford | -13.0L7–10 | 59.5 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Washington State at California | +1.5L39–42 | 58.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Fri 11/17 | Washington State vs Colorado | -4.5W56–14 | 59.5 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Washington State at Washington | +16.0L21–24 | 68.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
California 2023 Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | California at North Texas | -5.0W58–21 | 53.5 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | California vs Auburn | +5.0L10–14 | 55.5 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | California vs Idaho | -14.5W31–17 | 52.5 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | California at Washington | +21.0L32–59 | 55.5 | L32–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | California vs Arizona State | -13.0W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | California vs Oregon State | +7.5L40–52 | 51.0 | L40–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | California at Utah | +9.0L14–34 | 42.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | California vs USC | +10.5L49–50 | 67.5 | L49–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | California at Oregon | +26.5L19–63 | 61.5 | L19–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | California vs Washington State | -1.5W42–39 | 58.5 | W42–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | California at Stanford | -6.5W27–15 | 52.5 | W27–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | California at UCLA | +9.5W33–7 | 50.5 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | California vs Texas Tech | +3.5L14–34 | 54.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
California Edge
California +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +13.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
13–9 (59%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeff Schmedding
Yr 1
#1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
32–37 (46%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓