Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
Idaho✈ 667 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
California wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
California -14.5
O/U 52.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Idaho 2023 Schedule
Idaho's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/9 | Idaho at Nevada | -5.5W33–6 | 51.0 | W33–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Idaho at California | +14.5L17–31 | 52.5 | L17–31 | U | Y |
California 2023 Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | California at North Texas | -5.0W58–21 | 53.5 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | California vs Auburn | +5.0L10–14 | 55.5 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | California vs Idaho | -14.5W31–17 | 52.5 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | California at Washington | +21.0L32–59 | 55.5 | L32–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | California vs Arizona State | -13.0W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | California vs Oregon State | +7.5L40–52 | 51.0 | L40–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | California at Utah | +9.0L14–34 | 42.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | California vs USC | +10.5L49–50 | 67.5 | L49–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | California at Oregon | +26.5L19–63 | 61.5 | L19–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | California vs Washington State | -1.5W42–39 | 58.5 | W42–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | California at Stanford | -6.5W27–15 | 52.5 | W27–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | California at UCLA | +9.5W33–7 | 50.5 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | California vs Texas Tech | +3.5L14–34 | 54.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Idaho Edge
Idaho +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +6.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓