Auburn at California Week 2 College Football Matchup Auburn at California Matchup - Week 2
Sun, Sep 10 2023 · Week 2 · 🏟 California Memorial Stadium Berkeley, CA · Turf · 62,717 cap
Auburn✈ 2,092 mi-2 hr TZ
Away
14 10
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Auburn
30
California
25
P&R Line Auburn -5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Auburn -5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors California, while Game Control favors Auburn. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
California wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Auburn wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Auburn -5
O/U 55.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Auburn 2023 Schedule
Auburn's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Auburn vs Massachusetts-35.0W59–1452.0W59–14OY
Sat 9/9Auburn at California-5.0W14–1055.5W14–10UN
Sat 9/16Auburn vs Samford-37.5W45–1362.0W45–13UN
Sat 9/23Auburn at Texas A&M+9.5L10–2751.0L10–27UN
Sat 9/30Auburn vs Georgia+14.0L20–2744.5L20–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14Auburn at LSU+11.0L18–4860.0L18–48ON
Sat 10/21Auburn vs Ole Miss+6.5L21–2855.5L21–28UN
Sat 10/28Auburn vs Mississippi State-6.5W27–1340.0W27–13UY
Sat 11/4Auburn at Vanderbilt-12.5W31–1550.0W31–15UY
Sat 11/11Auburn at Arkansas+2.5W48–1046.5W48–10OY
Sat 11/18Auburn vs New Mexico State-25.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
Sat 11/25Auburn vs Alabama+14.0L24–2748.0L24–27OY
Sat 12/30Auburn vs Maryland-4.0L13–3147.5L13–31UN
California 2023 Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2California at North Texas-5.0W58–2153.5W58–21OY
Sat 9/9California vs Auburn+5.0L10–1455.5L10–14UY
Sat 9/16California vs Idaho-14.5W31–1752.5W31–17UN
Sat 9/23California at Washington+21.0L32–5955.5L32–59ON
Sat 9/30California vs Arizona State-13.0W24–2147.5W24–21UN
Sat 10/7California vs Oregon State+7.5L40–5251.0L40–52ON
Sat 10/14California at Utah+9.0L14–3442.5L14–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28California vs USC+10.5L49–5067.5L49–50OY
Sat 11/4California at Oregon+26.5L19–6361.5L19–63ON
Sat 11/11California vs Washington State-1.5W42–3958.5W42–39OY
Sat 11/18California at Stanford-6.5W27–1552.5W27–15UY
Sat 11/25California at UCLA+9.5W33–750.5W33–7UY
Sat 12/16California vs Texas Tech+3.5L14–3454.5L14–34UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
California PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Auburn #93
+0.350
California #61
+0.360
California Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Auburn #120
+0.413
California #92
+0.413
Even
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Auburn #51
0.170
California #75
0.160
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Auburn Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Auburn #58
+8.390
California #46
+7.771
Auburn Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Auburn #80
+0.863
California #88
+0.805
Auburn Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Auburn #65
70.6
California #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
California Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Auburn Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Auburn
5.7
California
5.3
Offense Rating
Auburn
18.1
California
19.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Auburn
12.4
California
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? California Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Auburn #74
3.00
California #72
4.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Auburn #72
0.00
California #116
0.00
California +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Auburn Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Auburn #1
96.2
California #1
88.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Auburn #75
0.2
California #74
5.1
Auburn +7.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Auburn
Hugh Freeze #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Philip Montgomery Yr 1 #1
DC Ron Roberts Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
32–37 (46%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Jake Spavital Yr 1 #1
DC Peter Sirmon Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself