Sat, Sep 30 2023
·
Week 5
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
Arizona State✈ 655 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
California
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
California entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
California wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
California wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
California -13
O/U 47.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → California
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona State 2023 Schedule
Arizona State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Arizona State vs Southern Utah | -34.0W24–21 | 60.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Arizona State vs Oklahoma State | +2.5L15–27 | 53.5 | L15–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arizona State vs Fresno State | +4.0L0–29 | 48.0 | L0–29 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arizona State vs USC | +34.5L28–42 | 62.0 | L28–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arizona State at California | +13.0L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arizona State vs Colorado | +3.0L24–27 | 58.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Arizona State at Washington | +28.0L7–15 | 59.5 | L7–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Arizona State vs Washington State | +4.5W38–27 | 49.0 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arizona State at Utah | +11.0L3–55 | 40.5 | L3–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Arizona State at UCLA | +14.0W17–7 | 45.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Arizona State vs Oregon | +21.5L13–49 | 52.5 | L13–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Arizona State vs Arizona | +12.5L23–59 | 48.5 | L23–59 | O | N |
California 2023 Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | California at North Texas | -5.0W58–21 | 53.5 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | California vs Auburn | +5.0L10–14 | 55.5 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | California vs Idaho | -14.5W31–17 | 52.5 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | California at Washington | +21.0L32–59 | 55.5 | L32–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | California vs Arizona State | -13.0W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | California vs Oregon State | +7.5L40–52 | 51.0 | L40–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | California at Utah | +9.0L14–34 | 42.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | California vs USC | +10.5L49–50 | 67.5 | L49–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | California at Oregon | +26.5L19–63 | 61.5 | L19–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | California vs Washington State | -1.5W42–39 | 58.5 | W42–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | California at Stanford | -6.5W27–15 | 52.5 | W27–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | California at UCLA | +9.5W33–7 | 50.5 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | California vs Texas Tech | +3.5L14–34 | 54.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ California
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
California Edge
California +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +15.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on California with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Beau Baldwin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 1
#1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
32–37 (46%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓