Kansas State at Texas Tech Week 7 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 14 2023 · Week 7 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
Kansas State✈ 486 miSame TZ
38 21
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
32
KSU +1
Texas Tech
25
P&R Line Kansas State -7.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -1 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kansas State, while Game Control favors Texas Tech. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Texas Tech wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -1
O/U 57.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Kansas State 2nd straight Road Game
Kansas State 2023 Schedule
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.5W45–056.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/9Kansas State vs Troy-15.0W42–1350.0W42–13OY
Sat 9/16Kansas State at Missouri-3.5L27–3048.0L27–30ON
Sat 9/23Kansas State vs UCF-6.0W44–3153.5W44–31OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/6Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.5L21–2953.5L21–29UN
Sat 10/14Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.0W38–2157.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/21Kansas State vs TCU-5.5W41–360.0W41–3UY
Sat 10/28Kansas State vs Houston-17.5W41–061.0W41–0UY
Sat 11/4Kansas State at Texas+4.0L30–3349.5L30–33OY
Sat 11/11Kansas State vs Baylor-20.5W59–2555.5W59–25OY
Sat 11/18Kansas State at Kansas-7.0W31–2760.5W31–27UN
Sat 11/25Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.5L35–4246.0L35–42ON
Thu 12/28Kansas State vs NC State-3.0W28–1948.5W28–19UY
Texas Tech 2023 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas Tech at Wyoming-13.0L33–3550.5L33–35ON
Sat 9/9Texas Tech vs Oregon+4.5L30–3870.0L30–38UN
Sat 9/16Texas Tech vs Tarleton State-36.5W41–375.5W41–3UY
Sat 9/23Texas Tech at West Virginia-6.0L13–2053.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/30Texas Tech vs Houston-8.5W49–2852.0W49–28OY
Sat 10/7Texas Tech at Baylor-2.5W39–1459.5W39–14UY
Sat 10/14Texas Tech vs Kansas State-1.0L21–3857.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/21Texas Tech at BYU-3.0L14–2749.0L14–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/2Texas Tech vs TCU-2.5W35–2859.5W35–28OY
Sat 11/11Texas Tech at Kansas+3.5W16–1361.5W16–13UY
Sat 11/18Texas Tech vs UCF-2.0W24–2359.0W24–23UN
Fri 11/24Texas Tech at Texas+16.5L7–5753.5L7–57ON
Sat 12/16Texas Tech vs California-3.5W34–1454.5W34–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #34
+0.433
Texas Tech #92
+0.294
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #60
+0.521
Texas Tech #111
+0.371
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #42
0.174
Texas Tech #91
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #1
+8.569
Texas Tech #70
+6.891
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #18
+0.882
Texas Tech #59
+0.803
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #40
69.6
Texas Tech #50
70.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Texas Tech
1.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #20
1.50
Texas Tech #88
0.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #46
1.00
Texas Tech #75
1.00
Kansas State +1.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
55.2
Texas Tech #1
57.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #20
27.5
Texas Tech #57
25.5
Texas Tech +2.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
32–21 (60%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
9–7 (56%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 2 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself