Sat, Oct 28 2023
·
Week 9
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
USC✈ 346 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
USC
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
USC entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
USC wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
USC wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
USC -10.5
O/U 67.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → USC
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
USC 2023 Schedule
USC's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | USC vs San José State | -31.5W56–28 | 66.0 | W56–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/2 | USC vs Nevada | -37.5W66–14 | 63.5 | W66–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | USC vs Stanford | -28.5W56–10 | 70.5 | W56–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | USC at Arizona State | -34.5W42–28 | 62.0 | W42–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | USC at Colorado | -22.0W48–41 | 74.5 | W48–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | USC vs Arizona | -21.0W43–41 | 69.5 | W43–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | USC at Notre Dame | +3.0L20–48 | 61.0 | L20–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | USC vs Utah | -7.5L32–34 | 51.5 | L32–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | USC at California | -10.5W50–49 | 67.5 | W50–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | USC vs Washington | +3.0L42–52 | 76.0 | L42–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | USC at Oregon | +12.5L27–36 | 78.5 | L27–36 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | USC vs UCLA | -6.0L20–38 | 65.5 | L20–38 | U | N |
| Wed 12/27 | USC vs Louisville | +4.5W42–28 | 58.0 | W42–28 | O | Y |
California 2023 Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | California at North Texas | -5.0W58–21 | 53.5 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | California vs Auburn | +5.0L10–14 | 55.5 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | California vs Idaho | -14.5W31–17 | 52.5 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | California at Washington | +21.0L32–59 | 55.5 | L32–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | California vs Arizona State | -13.0W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | California vs Oregon State | +7.5L40–52 | 51.0 | L40–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | California at Utah | +9.0L14–34 | 42.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | California vs USC | +10.5L49–50 | 67.5 | L49–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | California at Oregon | +26.5L19–63 | 61.5 | L19–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | California vs Washington State | -1.5W42–39 | 58.5 | W42–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | California at Stanford | -6.5W27–15 | 52.5 | W27–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | California at UCLA | +9.5W33–7 | 50.5 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | California vs Texas Tech | +3.5L14–34 | 54.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ USC
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
USC Edge
USC +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
USC Edge
USC +23.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
California
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
California
47.9 — 31.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
USC won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on USC with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
USC
Lincoln Riley #1
14–3 (82%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Josh Henson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Alex Grinch
Yr 2
#1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
32–37 (46%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓