Texas Tech at Kansas Week 11 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Kansas Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 11 2023 · Week 11 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Lawrence, KS · Turf · 50,071 cap
Texas Tech✈ 523 miSame TZ
16 13
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
25
Kansas
33
P&R Line Kansas -8
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas -3.5 · O/U 61.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas -3.5
O/U 61.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2023 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas Tech at Wyoming-13.0L33–3550.5L33–35ON
Sat 9/9Texas Tech vs Oregon+4.5L30–3870.0L30–38UN
Sat 9/16Texas Tech vs Tarleton State-36.5W41–375.5W41–3UY
Sat 9/23Texas Tech at West Virginia-6.0L13–2053.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/30Texas Tech vs Houston-8.5W49–2852.0W49–28OY
Sat 10/7Texas Tech at Baylor-2.5W39–1459.5W39–14UY
Sat 10/14Texas Tech vs Kansas State-1.0L21–3857.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/21Texas Tech at BYU-3.0L14–2749.0L14–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/2Texas Tech vs TCU-2.5W35–2859.5W35–28OY
Sat 11/11Texas Tech at Kansas+3.5W16–1361.5W16–13UY
Sat 11/18Texas Tech vs UCF-2.0W24–2359.0W24–23UN
Fri 11/24Texas Tech at Texas+16.5L7–5753.5L7–57ON
Sat 12/16Texas Tech vs California-3.5W34–1454.5W34–14UY
Kansas 2023 Schedule
Kansas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1Kansas vs Missouri State-32.5W48–1760.5W48–17ON
Fri 9/8Kansas vs Illinois-3.5W34–2357.5W34–23UY
Sat 9/16Kansas at Nevada-28.5W31–2458.0W31–24UN
Sat 9/23Kansas vs BYU-9.0W38–2755.5W38–27OY
Sat 9/30Kansas at Texas+15.5L14–4061.0L14–40UN
Sat 10/7Kansas vs UCF+2.0W51–2265.0W51–22OY
Sat 10/14Kansas at Oklahoma State-3.0L32–3954.0L32–39ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Kansas vs Oklahoma+7.0W38–3366.5W38–33OY
Sat 11/4Kansas at Iowa State+2.5W28–2153.0W28–21UY
Sat 11/11Kansas vs Texas Tech-3.5L13–1661.5L13–16UN
Sat 11/18Kansas vs Kansas State+7.0L27–3160.5L27–31UY
Sat 11/25Kansas at Cincinnati-7.5W49–1659.5W49–16OY
Tue 12/26Kansas vs UNLV-8.0W49–3664.5W49–36OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #92
+0.345
Kansas #5
+0.554
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #111
+0.386
Kansas #1
+0.883
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #91
0.151
Kansas #95
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #70
+8.053
Kansas #27
+7.887
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #59
+0.874
Kansas #13
+0.890
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
70.0
Kansas #99
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #88
0.50
Kansas #21
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #75
1.00
Kansas #51
1.00
Kansas +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
48.1
Kansas #1
59.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #57
34.8
Kansas #29
23.8
Kansas +11.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
9.7 — 83.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
9–7 (56%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 2 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
11–17 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself