Texas Tech at Wyoming Week 1 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Wyoming Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Sep 2 2023 · Week 1 · 🏟 War Memorial Stadium Laramie, WY · Turf · 29,181 cap
Texas Tech✈ 570 mi-1 hr TZ
33 35
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
27
Wyoming
24
P&R Line Texas Tech -3
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Texas Tech -13 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -13
O/U 50.5
Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado)
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2023 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas Tech at Wyoming-13.0L33–3550.5L33–35ON
Sat 9/9Texas Tech vs Oregon+4.5L30–3870.0L30–38UN
Sat 9/16Texas Tech vs Tarleton State-36.5W41–375.5W41–3UY
Sat 9/23Texas Tech at West Virginia-6.0L13–2053.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/30Texas Tech vs Houston-8.5W49–2852.0W49–28OY
Sat 10/7Texas Tech at Baylor-2.5W39–1459.5W39–14UY
Sat 10/14Texas Tech vs Kansas State-1.0L21–3857.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/21Texas Tech at BYU-3.0L14–2749.0L14–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/2Texas Tech vs TCU-2.5W35–2859.5W35–28OY
Sat 11/11Texas Tech at Kansas+3.5W16–1361.5W16–13UY
Sat 11/18Texas Tech vs UCF-2.0W24–2359.0W24–23UN
Fri 11/24Texas Tech at Texas+16.5L7–5753.5L7–57ON
Sat 12/16Texas Tech vs California-3.5W34–1454.5W34–14UY
Wyoming 2023 Schedule
Wyoming's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Wyoming vs Texas Tech+13.0W35–3350.5W35–33OY
Sat 9/9Wyoming vs Portland State-28.0W31–1751.0W31–17UN
Sat 9/16Wyoming at Texas+31.0L10–3148.5L10–31UY
Sat 9/23Wyoming vs App State-3.0W22–1945.0W22–19UN
Sat 9/30Wyoming vs New Mexico-14.5W35–2640.5W35–26ON
Sat 10/7Wyoming vs Fresno State+5.5W24–1943.0W24–19UY
Sat 10/14Wyoming at Air Force+12.5L27–3442.0L27–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/28Wyoming at Boise State+4.5L7–3248.5L7–32UN
Fri 11/3Wyoming vs Colorado State-6.0W24–1541.0W24–15UY
Fri 11/10Wyoming at UNLV+2.5L14–3448.5L14–34UN
Sat 11/18Wyoming vs Hawai'i-13.5W42–945.5W42–9OY
Sat 11/25Wyoming at Nevada-11.0W42–642.0W42–6OY
Sat 12/30Wyoming vs Toledo-4.5W16–1543.5W16–15UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Wyoming PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #92
+0.335
Wyoming #71
+0.344
Wyoming Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #111
+0.439
Wyoming #86
+0.442
Wyoming Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #91
0.151
Wyoming #118
0.137
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #70
+7.348
Wyoming #60
+7.426
Wyoming Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #59
+0.851
Wyoming #56
+0.840
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
70.0
Wyoming #89
71.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Wyoming
-10.7
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Wyoming
13.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Wyoming
24.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #88
0.00
Wyoming #51
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #75
0.00
Wyoming #92
0.00
Texas Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
0.0
Wyoming #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #57
0.0
Wyoming #56
0.0
Texas Tech +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Wyoming
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
15.7 — 65.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Wyoming won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Wyoming, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
9–7 (56%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 2 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wyoming
Craig Bohl #1
54–57 (49%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Tim Polasek Yr 3 #1
DC Jay Sawvel Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself