Texas Tech at West Virginia Week 4 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at West Virginia Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 23 2023 · Week 4 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
Texas Tech✈ 1,281 mi+1 hr TZ
13 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
25
West Virginia
29
P&R Line West Virginia -4
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas Tech -6 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -6
O/U 53.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → West Virginia · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 West Virginia 3rd straight Home Game
Texas Tech 2023 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas Tech at Wyoming-13.0L33–3550.5L33–35ON
Sat 9/9Texas Tech vs Oregon+4.5L30–3870.0L30–38UN
Sat 9/16Texas Tech vs Tarleton State-36.5W41–375.5W41–3UY
Sat 9/23Texas Tech at West Virginia-6.0L13–2053.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/30Texas Tech vs Houston-8.5W49–2852.0W49–28OY
Sat 10/7Texas Tech at Baylor-2.5W39–1459.5W39–14UY
Sat 10/14Texas Tech vs Kansas State-1.0L21–3857.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/21Texas Tech at BYU-3.0L14–2749.0L14–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/2Texas Tech vs TCU-2.5W35–2859.5W35–28OY
Sat 11/11Texas Tech at Kansas+3.5W16–1361.5W16–13UY
Sat 11/18Texas Tech vs UCF-2.0W24–2359.0W24–23UN
Fri 11/24Texas Tech at Texas+16.5L7–5753.5L7–57ON
Sat 12/16Texas Tech vs California-3.5W34–1454.5W34–14UY
West Virginia 2023 Schedule
West Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2West Virginia at Penn State+21.0L15–3848.0L15–38ON
Sat 9/9West Virginia vs Duquesne-38.5W56–1755.5W56–17OY
Sat 9/16West Virginia vs Pittsburgh-2.5W17–648.0W17–6UY
Sat 9/23West Virginia vs Texas Tech+6.0W20–1353.5W20–13UY
Sat 9/30West Virginia at TCU+14.0W24–2152.0W24–21UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/12West Virginia at Houston-3.0L39–4149.5L39–41ON
Sat 10/21West Virginia vs Oklahoma State-3.0L34–4848.0L34–48ON
Sat 10/28West Virginia at UCF+6.5W41–2859.5W41–28OY
Sat 11/4West Virginia vs BYU-13.0W37–748.5W37–7UY
Sat 11/11West Virginia at Oklahoma+13.5L20–5959.5L20–59ON
Sat 11/18West Virginia vs Cincinnati-4.5W42–2152.5W42–21OY
Sat 11/25West Virginia at Baylor-6.5W34–3153.5W34–31ON
Wed 12/27West Virginia vs North Carolina-4.5W30–1062.0W30–10UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
West Virginia PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ West Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #92
+0.340
West Virginia #35
+0.432
West Virginia Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #111
+0.411
West Virginia #55
+0.534
West Virginia Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #91
0.151
West Virginia #18
0.188
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #70
+8.071
West Virginia #54
+7.494
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #59
+0.840
West Virginia #37
+0.860
West Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
70.0
West Virginia #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
West Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
West Virginia
1.3
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
West Virginia
16.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #88
0.50
West Virginia #41
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #75
2.00
West Virginia #65
1.00
Texas Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
63.4
West Virginia #1
40.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #57
18.4
West Virginia #37
43.6
Texas Tech +22.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
9–7 (56%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 2 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
24–26 (48%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 1 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself