Sat, Nov 18 2023
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Week 12
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🏟 Stanford Stadium
Stanford, CA
·
Turf
·
50,424 cap
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Stanford,
while Game Control favors California.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Stanford wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
California wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
California -6.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → California
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
California 2023 Schedule
California's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | California at North Texas | -5.0W58–21 | 53.5 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | California vs Auburn | +5.0L10–14 | 55.5 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | California vs Idaho | -14.5W31–17 | 52.5 | W31–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | California at Washington | +21.0L32–59 | 55.5 | L32–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | California vs Arizona State | -13.0W24–21 | 47.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | California vs Oregon State | +7.5L40–52 | 51.0 | L40–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | California at Utah | +9.0L14–34 | 42.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | California vs USC | +10.5L49–50 | 67.5 | L49–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | California at Oregon | +26.5L19–63 | 61.5 | L19–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | California vs Washington State | -1.5W42–39 | 58.5 | W42–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | California at Stanford | -6.5W27–15 | 52.5 | W27–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | California at UCLA | +9.5W33–7 | 50.5 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | California vs Texas Tech | +3.5L14–34 | 54.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
Stanford 2023 Schedule
Stanford's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Stanford at Hawai'i | -2.0W37–24 | 54.0 | W37–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Stanford at USC | +28.5L10–56 | 70.5 | L10–56 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Stanford vs Sacramento State | -7.0L23–30 | 60.5 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Stanford vs Arizona | +13.0L20–21 | 60.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Stanford vs Oregon | +27.0L6–42 | 59.5 | L6–42 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/13 | Stanford at Colorado | +13.0W46–43 | 59.0 | W46–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Stanford vs UCLA | +17.0L7–42 | 52.0 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Stanford vs Washington | +27.5L33–42 | 62.0 | L33–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Stanford at Washington State | +13.0W10–7 | 59.5 | W10–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Stanford at Oregon State | +21.5L17–62 | 51.5 | L17–62 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Stanford vs California | +6.5L15–27 | 52.5 | L15–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Stanford vs Notre Dame | +26.0L23–56 | 50.5 | L23–56 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ California
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ California
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ California
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Stanford Edge
Stanford +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +16.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Stanford
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
California
9.5 — 77.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
California won by 12
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
California
Justin Wilcox #1
32–37 (46%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 3
#1
Stanford
Troy Taylor #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Troy Taylor
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bobby April III
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓