Texas Tech at Texas Week 13 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Texas Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 25 2023 · Week 13 · 🏟 Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, TX · Turf · 100,119 cap
Texas Tech✈ 333 miSame TZ
7 57
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
17
Texas
36
P&R Line Texas -19.5
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas -16.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Texas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas -16.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Texas · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2023 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas Tech at Wyoming-13.0L33–3550.5L33–35ON
Sat 9/9Texas Tech vs Oregon+4.5L30–3870.0L30–38UN
Sat 9/16Texas Tech vs Tarleton State-36.5W41–375.5W41–3UY
Sat 9/23Texas Tech at West Virginia-6.0L13–2053.5L13–20UN
Sat 9/30Texas Tech vs Houston-8.5W49–2852.0W49–28OY
Sat 10/7Texas Tech at Baylor-2.5W39–1459.5W39–14UY
Sat 10/14Texas Tech vs Kansas State-1.0L21–3857.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/21Texas Tech at BYU-3.0L14–2749.0L14–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/2Texas Tech vs TCU-2.5W35–2859.5W35–28OY
Sat 11/11Texas Tech at Kansas+3.5W16–1361.5W16–13UY
Sat 11/18Texas Tech vs UCF-2.0W24–2359.0W24–23UN
Fri 11/24Texas Tech at Texas+16.5L7–5753.5L7–57ON
Sat 12/16Texas Tech vs California-3.5W34–1454.5W34–14UY
Texas 2023 Schedule
Texas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Texas vs Rice-35.5W37–1059.0W37–10UN
Sat 9/9Texas at Alabama+7.0W34–2453.0W34–24OY
Sat 9/16Texas vs Wyoming-31.0W31–1048.5W31–10UN
Sat 9/23Texas at Baylor-17.5W38–649.5W38–6UY
Sat 9/30Texas vs Kansas-15.5W40–1461.0W40–14UY
Sat 10/7Texas vs Oklahoma-4.0L30–3462.0L30–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/21Texas at Houston-24.0W31–2460.5W31–24UN
Sat 10/28Texas vs BYU-20.5W35–648.5W35–6UY
Sat 11/4Texas vs Kansas State-4.0W33–3049.5W33–30ON
Sat 11/11Texas at TCU-13.0W29–2656.0W29–26UN
Sat 11/18Texas at Iowa State-7.5W26–1643.5W26–16UY
Fri 11/24Texas vs Texas Tech-16.5W57–753.5W57–7OY
Sat 12/2Texas vs Oklahoma State-14.0W49–2155.0W49–21OY
Mon 1/1Texas vs Washington-3.0L31–3761.5L31–37ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #92
+0.242
Texas #33
+0.434
Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #111
+0.398
Texas #38
+0.565
Texas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #91
0.151
Texas #21
0.187
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #70
+7.341
Texas #75
+7.302
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #59
+0.784
Texas #43
+0.856
Texas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
70.0
Texas #25
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Texas
27.2
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Texas
29.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Texas
2.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #88
0.60
Texas #4
1.91
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #75
1.00
Texas #14
0.55
Texas +1.31
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
49.5
Texas #1
70.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #57
33.2
Texas #3
13.8
Texas +20.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas
90.1 — 5.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas won by 50
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
9–7 (56%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 2 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
16–12 (57%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Kyle Flood Yr 3 #1
DC Jeff Choate Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself