UCF at East Carolina - 2022 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 22nd 2022 (7:30 PM EDT)
UCF -5.5 (63.0)
East Carolina 34 - UCF: 13 (American Athletic)

Knights (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ECU 2nd straight Home Game
ECU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ UCF -9)
Projected Score: UCF: 19 - ECU: 32 (51)
UCF Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UCF Travel: 532 miles

Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (14 - 19)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	UCF vs South Carolina State	-43.5	58.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Fri 9/9	UCF vs Louisville	-5.5	62.0	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/17	UCF at Florida Atlantic	-7.5	61.5	W 40 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/24	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-21.0	56.5	W 27 - 10	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/5	UCF vs SMU	-3.0	65.0	W 41 - 19	U	Y
Thu 10/13	UCF vs Temple	-23.5	46.5	W 70 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/22	UCF at East Carolina	-5.5	63.0	L 13 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/29	UCF vs Cincinnati	-1.5	55.5	W 25 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/5	UCF at Memphis	-3.0	60.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/12	UCF at Tulane	+1.0	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/19	UCF vs Navy	-14.5	53.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/26	UCF at South Florida	-20.0	67.5	W 46 - 39	O	N
Sat 12/3	UCF at Tulane	+3.5	57.5	L 28 - 45	O	N
Wed 12/28	UCF vs Duke	+3.5	63.0	L 13 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

East Carolina's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	East Carolina vs NC State	+12.5	52.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/10	East Carolina vs Old Dominion	-13.0	49.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/17	East Carolina vs Campbell	-32.5	58.0	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/24	East Carolina vs Navy	-16.5	48.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/1	East Carolina vs South Florida	-10.0	55.5	W 48 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	East Carolina at Tulane	+2.5	56.0	L 9 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/15	East Carolina vs Memphis	-5.5	62.5	W 47 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	East Carolina vs UCF	+5.5	63.0	W 34 - 13	U	Y
Fri 10/28	East Carolina at BYU	+3.0	64.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/11	East Carolina at Cincinnati	+4.5	51.5	L 25 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/19	East Carolina vs Houston	-6.0	66.5	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/26	East Carolina at Temple	-9.5	52.0	W 49 - 46	O	N
Tue 12/27	East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	67.5	W 53 - 29	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	.23	43%	24.3	46%	3.19	196	40%	206	4.44	.16	40%	23.6	43%	38%	3.51	53.5	1.2	1.8
ECU	.19	41%	32.7	40%	2.75	162	41%	271	3.65	.21	40%	20.1	43%	38%	3.7	49.3	1.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	13	24.3	12.8	42.9%	4.44	1.2	20	402	196	206	5.4	51%	49%	46%	40%	16%	.23
ECU Defense	12	20.1	19.8	40.4%	3.7	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	19%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	13	23.6	34.6	40.4%	3.51	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	43%	38%	19%	.16
ECU Offense	12	32.7	36.2	40.6%	3.65	1.8	22	433	162	271	4.1	49%	51%	40%	41%	19%	.19

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	13	28:35	19.9	37%	79%	6.2	53.5	1.2	1.8	6.8	2.8	0	31.2
East Carolina	12	33:59	22.3	35%	72%	5.3	49.3	1.8	1.9	6.1	2.2	2	29.5

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	13	51%	46%	36.6	196.3	5.4	27	.26	3.19	75%	11%	1.14
ECU Defense	12	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.02	70%	11%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	13	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	.2	2.96	66%	11%	1.13
ECU Offense	12	49%	40%	39.6	162.4	4.1	20	.1	2.75	70%	12%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	13	49%	40%	19.4	30	206.2	6.9	10.6	29	9	.19	1.6	32%	33%	.46	5%	2.2
ECU Defense	12	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.24	1.7	33%	28%	.25	8%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	13	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.13	1.4	33%	30%	.32	8%	2
ECU Offense	12	51%	41%	21.8	35.3	270.8	7.7	12.5	21	11	.28	1.7	33%	30%	.26	7%	2.1

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: NR
UCF's Offense Rating: NR
UCF's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UCF's 2022 Expected Record: -
UCF's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #32

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: East Carolina: 3.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 10.3 East Carolina: 1.1

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 3.05 NR
East Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
East Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
East Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
East Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #68
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #51
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
East Carolina 32
UCF 19

Projected Total Points: 51

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	10/22	East Carolina	34	UCF	13	UCF -5.5	East Carolina	63.0	Under
2021	10/09	UCF	20	East Carolina	16	UCF -10	East Carolina	65.0	Under
2020	09/26	East Carolina	28	UCF	51	UCF -28	East Carolina	78.0	Over
2019	10/19	UCF	41	East Carolina	28	UCF -34.5	East Carolina	65.5	Over
2018	10/20	East Carolina	10	UCF	37	UCF -21.5	UCF	65.5	Under
2017	10/14	UCF	63	East Carolina	21	UCF -35	UCF	70.0	Over
2016	10/01	East Carolina	29	UCF	47	East Carolina -5.5	UCF	61.0	Over
2015	11/19	UCF	7	East Carolina	44	East Carolina -17	East Carolina	51.5	Under
2014	12/04	East Carolina	30	UCF	32	East Carolina -6.5	UCF	0
2012	10/04	UCF	40	East Carolina	20
2011	11/19	East Carolina	38	UCF	31
2010	10/30	UCF	49	East Carolina	35
2009	09/26	East Carolina	19	UCF	14
2008	11/02	UCF	10	East Carolina	13
2007	10/06	East Carolina	52	UCF	38
2006	11/04	UCF	10	East Carolina	23
2005	10/29	East Carolina	20	UCF	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	7	5	4 Overs
UCF	10	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 8	3 - 6	1 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 9	6 - 3	2 - 2	4 - 1

(#) UCF at (#) ECU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	ECU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#35	#68
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#77
OffenseOff	#22	#49
DefenseDef	#80	#119
Spec TeamsST	#59	#41
TalentTal	#53	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

UCF Injury Report

East Carolina Injury Report

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	ECU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#22	#119
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#55	#75
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#59	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#40

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#3	#130
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	UCF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#49	#80
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#51	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#31	#67
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#92

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#14	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#104
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Top G5

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'22 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
UCF 5.5 (63.0)
East Carolina won vs UCF this year (34-13)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

UCF's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD