Navy at East Carolina - 2022 Matchup Preview

Navy Midshipmen at East Carolina Pirates

Saturday, September 24th 2022 (6:00 PM EDT)
East Carolina -16.5 (48.5)
Navy 23 - East Carolina: 20 (American Athletic)

Midshipmen (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (104 - 74)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ECU 4th straight Home Game
NAVY coming off BYE
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ ECU -8)
Projected Score: NAVY: 24 - ECU: 31 (55)
ECU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
NAVY Travel: 239 miles

Pirates (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (14 - 19)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 20 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NAVY Players
ECU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Navy's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Navy vs Delaware	-13.0	48.5	L 7 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/10	Navy vs Memphis	+4.5	47.5	L 13 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	Navy at East Carolina	+16.5	48.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Navy at Air Force	+14.0	38.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Navy vs Tulsa	+4.5	45.5	W 53 - 21	O	Y
Fri 10/14	Navy at SMU	+12.5	59.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Navy vs Houston	+3.0	51.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Navy vs Temple	-14.5	41.5	W 27 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/5	Navy at Cincinnati	+18.5	43.5	L 10 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Navy vs Notre Dame	+17.0	40.5	L 32 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Navy at UCF	+14.5	53.0	W 17 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/10	Navy vs Army	-2.5	32.0	L 17 - 20	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

East Carolina's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	East Carolina vs NC State	+12.5	52.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/10	East Carolina vs Old Dominion	-13.0	49.5	W 39 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/17	East Carolina vs Campbell	-32.5	58.0	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/24	East Carolina vs Navy	-16.5	48.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/1	East Carolina vs South Florida	-10.0	55.5	W 48 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	East Carolina at Tulane	+2.5	56.0	L 9 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/15	East Carolina vs Memphis	-5.5	62.5	W 47 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	East Carolina vs UCF	+5.5	63.0	W 34 - 13	U	Y
Fri 10/28	East Carolina at BYU	+3.0	64.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/11	East Carolina at Cincinnati	+4.5	51.5	L 25 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/19	East Carolina vs Houston	-6.0	66.5	L 3 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/26	East Carolina at Temple	-9.5	52.0	W 49 - 46	O	N
Tue 12/27	East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	67.5	W 53 - 29	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	.12	37%	31.5	38%	2.89	226	27%	57	3.87	.21	42%	25	41%	44%	3.87	35.2	0.7	1.3
ECU	.19	41%	32.7	40%	2.75	162	41%	271	3.65	.21	40%	20.1	43%	38%	3.7	49.3	1.8	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	25.8	36.6%	3.87	0.7	17	283	226	57	3.9	84%	15%	38%	27%	14%	.12
ECU Defense	12	20.1	19.8	40.4%	3.7	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	19%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Defense	12	25	30.2	42.4%	3.87	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	41%	44%	16%	.21
ECU Offense	12	32.7	36.2	40.6%	3.65	1.8	22	433	162	271	4.1	49%	51%	40%	41%	19%	.19

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Navy	12	34:47	16.7	37%	69%	4.4	35.2	0.7	1.3	5.1	1.3	2	30.5
East Carolina	12	33:59	22.3	35%	72%	5.3	49.3	1.8	1.9	6.1	2.2	2	29.5

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense	12	84%	38%	58.1	226	3.9	19	.15	2.89	78%	13%	1.11
ECU Defense	12	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.02	70%	11%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense	12	54%	41%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.68	71%	11%	1.07
ECU Offense	12	49%	40%	39.6	162.4	4.1	20	.1	2.75	70%	12%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense	12	15%	27%	4	8.1	56.8	7	14.2	6	3	-.03	1.8	30%	23%	.13	1%	1.9
ECU Defense	12	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.24	1.7	33%	28%	.25	8%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense	12	46%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.32	1.6	32%	34%	.44	5%	2
ECU Offense	12	51%	41%	21.8	35.3	270.8	7.7	12.5	21	11	.28	1.7	33%	30%	.26	7%	2.1

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: NR
Navy's Offense Rating: NR
Navy's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #233
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Navy's 2022 Expected Record: -
Navy's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #94
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2 #106
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #47

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: East Carolina: 3.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: -7.2 East Carolina: 1.1

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: 3.05 NR
East Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
East Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
East Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
East Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #68
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #51
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
East Carolina 31
Navy 24

Projected Total Points: 55

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

East Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/29	East Carolina	20	Navy	34	East Carolina -2.5	Navy	54.0	Push
2023	11/18	Navy	10	East Carolina	0	Navy -2.5	Navy	30.5	Under
2022	09/24	East Carolina	20	Navy	23	East Carolina -16.5	Navy	48.5	Under
2021	11/20	Navy	35	East Carolina	38	East Carolina -3.5	Navy	46.0	Over
2020	10/17	East Carolina	23	Navy	27	Navy -3	Navy	55.5	Under
2019	09/14	Navy	42	East Carolina	10	Navy -7.5	Navy	53.0	Under
2016	11/19	East Carolina	31	Navy	66	Navy -8	Navy	64.0	Over
2015	09/19	Navy	45	East Carolina	21	Navy -1.5	Navy	58.0	Over
2012	10/27	East Carolina	28	Navy	56
2011	10/22	Navy	35	East Carolina	38
2010	11/06	East Carolina	35	Navy	76
2006	09/02	Navy	28	East Carolina	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
East Carolina	2	0	3 Overs
Navy	10	8	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 8	4 - 4	3 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 4	4 - 4	2 - 1	2 - 3

(#) NAVY at (#) ECU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NAVY	ECU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#94	#68
Perf GradeGrade	#109	#77
OffenseOff	#87	#49
DefenseDef	#121	#119
Spec TeamsST	#30	#41
TalentTal	#233	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Navy Injury Report

East Carolina Injury Report

Navy on Offense


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	ECU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#87	#119
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#106	#75
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Navy Run Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#128	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#40

Navy Pass Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#112	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#136	#130
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	NAVY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#49	#121
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#51	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#31	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#103

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#14	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#103
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Top G5

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'22 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
East Carolina -16.5 (48.5)
Navy won at East Carolina this year (23-20)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat East Carolina in 2024 (34-20)
Navy beat East Carolina in 2023 (10-0)

NAVY's OC Vacant (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC Brian Newberry (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD