NC State at North Carolina - 2020 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, October 24th 2020 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -15.0 (62.0)
North Carolina 48 - NC State: 21 (ACC)

Wolfpack (8 - 4) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 29 (30 - 34 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC is playing their 4th straight game
NCST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -9.5 (SP+ UNC -14)
Projected Score: NCST: 29 - UNC: 36 (65)
UNC Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
NCST Travel: 20 miles

Tar Heels (8 - 4) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 42 - 29 (43 - 28 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2020 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19	NC State vs Wake Forest	+2.0	54.0	W 45 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/26	NC State at Virginia Tech	+6.5	57.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/3	NC State at Pittsburgh	+14.0	45.5	W 30 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/10	NC State at Virginia	+7.0	59.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/17	NC State vs Duke	-3.5	59.5	W 31 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/24	NC State at North Carolina	+15.0	62.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/6	NC State vs Miami	+10.0	57.5	L 41 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/14	NC State vs Florida State	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/21	NC State vs Liberty	-4.0	66.5	W 15 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/28	NC State at Syracuse	-17.5	50.5	W 36 - 29	O	N
Sat 12/5	NC State vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	61.5	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 1/2	NC State vs Kentucky	+3.0	50.5	L 21 - 23	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

North Carolina's 2020 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/12	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-24.5	67.0	W 31 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3	North Carolina at Boston College	-14.5	52.5	W 26 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/10	North Carolina vs Virginia Tech	-3.5	59.0	W 56 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/17	North Carolina at Florida State	-13.5	65.0	L 28 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/24	North Carolina vs NC State	-15.0	62.0	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/31	North Carolina at Virginia	-7.0
Sat 11/7	North Carolina at Duke	-11.5	63.0	W 56 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/14	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-13.0	70.5	W 59 - 53	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/27	North Carolina vs Notre Dame	+4.5	69.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 12/5	North Carolina vs Western Carolina	-48.5	69.5	W 49 - 9	U	N
Sat 12/12	North Carolina at Miami	+3.0	72.5	W 62 - 26	O	Y
Sat 1/2	North Carolina vs Texas A&M	+7.0	67.5	L 27 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.16	42%	30.3	43%	2.61	123	42%	262	3.87	.16	41%	29.2	40%	41%	3.82	74.3	1.6	1
UNC	.41	51%	41.7	52%	3.27	236	49%	301	4.75	.22	42%	29.4	47%	37%	3.82	67.3	1.1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)		47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)		44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	12	30.3	29.8	42.5%	3.87	1.6	22	385	123	262	3.4	50%	50%	43%	42%	17%	.16
UNC Defense	12	29.4	27.5	42.1%	3.82	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	37%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	12	29.2	34.4	40.7%	3.82	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	40%	41%	18%	.16
UNC Offense	12	41.7	43.3	50.6%	4.75	1.1	26	537	236	301	5.8	51%	49%	52%	49%	15%	.41

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	12	29:57	22.3	44%	67%	8.1	74.3	1.6	1	7.6	2.8	3	29.7
North Carolina	12	30:47	26.3	45%	58%	6.9	67.3	1.1	0.9	5.8	3	0	29.1

Run Game Stats (2020)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	12	50%	43%	36.2	123.3	3.4	20	.03	2.61	71%	11%	0.84
UNC Defense	12	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.14	80%	9%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	12	49%	40%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.71	59%	12%	0.99
UNC Offense	12	51%	52%	41	235.8	5.8	35	.33	3.27	77%	10%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2020)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	12	50%	42%	20.9	33.3	261.9	7.9	12.5	24	15	.3	1.8	31%	36%	.39	6%	2.1
UNC Defense	12	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.8	30%	32%	.38	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	12	50%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.6	34%	32%	.4	7%	2.1
UNC Offense	12	49%	49%	20.3	29.8	301.4	10.1	14.8	31	8	.5	1.8	27%	39%	.61	5%	2.3

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating: #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
NC State's 2020 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.6 #54
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #62
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #52

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: North Carolina: 11.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 3.6 North Carolina: 17.1

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 11.05 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating: #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2020 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.1 #12
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.1 #6
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

NC State's 2020 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 36
NC State 29

Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 35
NC State 28

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 37
NC State 29

Total Points: 66

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 41.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.5

North Carolina's 2020 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	NC State	42	North Carolina	19	NC State -7	NC State	48.5	Over
2024	11/30	North Carolina	30	NC State	35	North Carolina -2.5	NC State	54.5	Over
2023	11/25	NC State	39	North Carolina	20	North Carolina -2	NC State	55.0	Over
2022	11/25	North Carolina	27	NC State	30	North Carolina -6.5	NC State	56.0	Over
2021	11/26	NC State	34	North Carolina	30	NC State -6.5	North Carolina	62.0	Over
2020	10/24	North Carolina	48	NC State	21	North Carolina -15.0	North Carolina	62.0	Over
2019	11/30	NC State	10	North Carolina	41	North Carolina -11	North Carolina	57.0	Under
2018	11/24	North Carolina	28	NC State	34	NC State -7.5	North Carolina	61.5	Over
2017	11/25	NC State	33	North Carolina	21	NC State -14.5	North Carolina	57.0	Under
2016	11/25	North Carolina	21	NC State	28	North Carolina -10	NC State	63.0	Under
2015	11/28	NC State	34	North Carolina	45	North Carolina -6	North Carolina	65.0	Over
2014	11/29	North Carolina	7	NC State	35	North Carolina -6	NC State	0
2013	11/02	NC State	19	North Carolina	27	North Carolina -3	North Carolina	0
2012	10/27	North Carolina	43	NC State	35
2011	11/05	NC State	13	North Carolina	0
2010	11/20	North Carolina	25	NC State	29
2009	11/28	NC State	28	North Carolina	27
2008	11/22	North Carolina	10	NC State	41
2007	11/10	NC State	31	North Carolina	27
2006	11/18	North Carolina	23	NC State	9
2005	09/24	NC State	24	North Carolina	31
2004	10/09	North Carolina	30	NC State	24
2003	09/27	NC State	47	North Carolina	34
2002	10/12	North Carolina	17	NC State	34
2001	09/29	NC State	9	North Carolina	17
2000	10/13	North Carolina	20	NC State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	9	7	8 Overs
NC State	17	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	4 - 9	2 - 6	2 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 12	9 - 4	3 - 2	6 - 2

(#) NCST at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#12
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#31	#23
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

NC State Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#62	#54
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#6	#52
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'20 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'20 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 78° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 8
North Carolina -15.0 (62.0)
North Carolina won vs NC State this year (48-21)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat North Carolina last year (35-30)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2023 (39-20)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2022 (30-27)

NCST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD