North Carolina at Virginia - 2020 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo   North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers  Virginia logo
Saturday, October 31st 2020 (8:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7.0
Virginia 44 - North Carolina: 41  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (8 - 4) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
'20 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UVA is playing their 6th straight game
UNC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -4.5  (SP+ UNC -14)
Projected Score: UNC: 19 - UVA: 29 (48)
UNC Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 150 miles
Cavaliers (5 - 5) (7 - 3 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
'20 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2020 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs Syracuse-24.567.0W 31 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina at Boston College-14.552.5W 26 - 22UN
Sat 10/10 North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-3.559.0W 56 - 45OY
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Florida State-13.565.0L 28 - 31UN
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs NC State-15.062.0W 48 - 21OY
Sat 10/31 North Carolina at Virginia-7.0
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at Duke-11.563.0W 56 - 24OY
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Wake Forest-13.070.5W 59 - 53ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/27 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+4.569.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 12/5 North Carolina vs Western Carolina-48.569.5W 49 - 9UN
Sat 12/12 North Carolina at Miami+3.072.5W 62 - 26OY
Sat 1/2 North Carolina vs Texas A&M+7.067.5L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Virginia's 2020 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26 Virginia vs Duke-3.544.5W 38 - 20OY
Sat 10/3 Virginia at Clemson+28.055.0L 23 - 41OY
Sat 10/10 Virginia vs NC State-7.059.0L 21 - 38UN
Sat 10/17 Virginia at Wake Forest+2.557.5L 23 - 40ON
Sat 10/24 Virginia at Miami+13.554.5L 14 - 19UY
Sat 10/31 Virginia vs North Carolina+7.0
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14 Virginia vs Louisville-5.564.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 11/21 Virginia vs Abilene Christian-38.561.5W 55 - 15OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/5 Virginia vs Boston College-6.553.0W 43 - 32OY
Sat 12/12 Virginia at Virginia Tech+3.064.0L 15 - 33UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2019)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC.2446%19.343%2.9818846%2864.1242%24.539%42%3.0753.90.92
UVA.1646%30.844%2.9512145%2683.93.1941%19.643%37%3.5843.71.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2019
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1319.317.545.6%40.9244741882864.649%49%43%46%20%.24
UVA Defense1419.617.741%3.581.6 - - - - - 50%49%43%37%22%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1324.52341.6%3.072 - - - - - 49%49%39%42%21%.12
UVA Offense1430.836.445.5%3.931.5213891212683.840%58%44%45%21%.16

Additional Stats 2019
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1330:1924.241%65%6.253.90.928.12.9127.8
Virginia1433:0321.145%56%4.743.71.51.68.34.3434.3
Run Game Stats (2020)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1349%43%40.6188.24.613.132.9872%14%1
UVA Defense1450%43% - - - - .22.9477%14%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1349%39% - - - - .042.8574%14%0.94
UVA Offense1440%44%31.6121.23.828.122.9569%12%0.94

Pass Game Stats (2020)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1349%46%20.433.2285.88.614397.391.733%38%.446%1.9
UVA Defense1449%37% - - - - - - 12.181.736%33%.359%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1349%42% - - - - - - 14.211.634%31%.247%1.8
UVA Offense1458%45%24.137.1267.77.211.12315.191.432%32%.29%1.7

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating:  #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2020 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.1  #6
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina:    Virginia: 4.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 17.1   Virginia: 3.3




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 4.15 NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating:  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Virginia's 2020 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.3  #55
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #54
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2020 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 29
North Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 48
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2020 Record
Record: 5 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25North Carolina16Virginia17Virginia -12.5North Carolina51.5Under
202410/26Virginia14North Carolina41Virginia -3.5North Carolina58.5Under
202310/21North Carolina27Virginia31North Carolina -24Virginia58.0Push
202211/05Virginia28North Carolina31North Carolina -7Virginia61.5Under
202109/18North Carolina59Virginia39North Carolina -7.5North Carolina67.0Over
202010/31Virginia44North Carolina41North Carolina -7.0Virginia0
201911/02North Carolina31Virginia38Virginia -1Virginia48.0Over
201810/27Virginia31North Carolina21Virginia -7.5Virginia51.0Over
201710/14North Carolina14Virginia20Virginia -3Virginia54.5Under
201610/22Virginia14North Carolina35North Carolina -9North Carolina68.5Under
201510/24North Carolina26Virginia13North Carolina -12North Carolina58.0Under
201410/25Virginia27North Carolina28Virginia -7.5North Carolina0
201311/09North Carolina45Virginia14North Carolina -14North Carolina0
201211/15Virginia13North Carolina37
201109/17North Carolina28Virginia17
201010/16Virginia10North Carolina44
200910/03North Carolina3Virginia16
200810/18Virginia16North Carolina13
200709/15North Carolina20Virginia22
200610/19Virginia23North Carolina0
200510/22North Carolina7Virginia5
200409/11Virginia56North Carolina24
200310/04North Carolina13Virginia38
200210/19Virginia37North Carolina27
200110/13North Carolina30Virginia24
200010/27Virginia17North Carolina6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia1463 Overs
North Carolina1276 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 137 - 64 - 33 - 3
Road Teams13 - 136 - 73 - 33 - 4

(#) UNC at (#) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCUVA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #12 #55
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #23 #63
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #6 #58
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Virginia on Offense
CategoryCatUVA OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #54 #54
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Virginia Run Game
CategoryCat
UVA OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Virginia Pass Game
CategoryCatUVA OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'20 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'20 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
North Carolina 7.0 (0)
Virginia won vs North Carolina this year (44-41)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat North Carolina last year (17-16)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2024 (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)

  
UNC's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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UNC's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

UVA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

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UVA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD