Troy at Texas State - 2016 Matchup Preview
Troy logo   Troy Trojans at Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Saturday, November 26th 2016 (4:00 PM EST)
Troy -26.5 (57.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Troy 40 - Texas State: 7  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (10 - 3) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
TROY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -11  (SP+ TROY -26.5)
Projected Score: TROY: 26 - TXST: 31 (57)
TROY Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
TROY Travel: 722 miles
Bobcats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Troy's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Troy vs Austin Peay-37.0
Sat 9/10 Troy at Clemson+34.062.0L 24 - 30UY
Sat 9/17 Troy at Southern Miss+11.561.0W 37 - 31OY
Sat 9/24 Troy vs New Mexico State-17.566.0W 52 - 6UY
Sat 10/1 Troy at Idaho-13.557.5W 34 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15 Troy vs Georgia State-16.554.0W 31 - 21UN
Thu 10/20 Troy at South Alabama-9.049.0W 28 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5 Troy vs Massachusetts-23.056.5W 52 - 31ON
Sat 11/12 Troy vs App State-1.549.0W 28 - 24OY
Thu 11/17 Troy vs Arkansas State-8.553.5L 3 - 35UN
Sat 11/26 Troy at Texas State-26.557.5W 40 - 7UY
Sat 12/3 Troy at Georgia Southern-9.053.0L 24 - 28UN
Fri 12/23 Troy vs Ohio-5.050.0W 28 - 23ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Texas State's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Texas State at Ohio+19.058.5W 56 - 54OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/17 Texas State at Arkansas+32.559.5L 3 - 42UN
Sat 9/24 Texas State vs Houston+33.063.5L 3 - 64ON
Sat 10/1 Texas State vs Incarnate Word-17.0
Sat 10/8 Texas State at Georgia State+8.558.0L 21 - 41ON
Sat 10/15 Texas State at UL Monroe+4.566.5L 34 - 40ON
Sat 10/22 Texas State vs Louisiana+11.565.0L 3 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5 Texas State at App State+30.053.0L 10 - 35UY
Sat 11/12 Texas State vs Idaho+8.062.0L 14 - 47UN
Sat 11/19 Texas State at New Mexico State+6.566.0L 10 - 50UN
Sat 11/26 Texas State vs Troy+26.557.5L 7 - 40UN
Sat 12/3 Texas State vs Arkansas State+21.554.0L 14 - 36UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2015)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY.1643%23.540%2.4311943%2412.93.1946%23.946%43%3.3557.61.61.6
TXST.1342%36.544%2.7518738%2273.63.3349%2948%48%4.14541.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2015
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense1223.523.443.1%2.931.6193601192413.841%56%40%43%3%.16
TXST Defense122928.348.6%4.141.2 - - - - - 58%41%48%48%3%.33
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1223.925.945.5%3.351.6 - - - - - 59%39%46%43%1%.19
TXST Offense1236.53841.8%3.631.8214151872274.852%46%44%38%2%.13

Additional Stats 2015
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1226:1718.835%37%6.757.61.61.600230.3
Texas State1228:5721.336%62%6.1541.81.200228.2
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1241%40%31.8119.13.814.022.4362%0%0.9
TXST Defense1258%48% - - - - .233.2469%0%1.05
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1259%46% - - - - .133.0272%0%0.85
TXST Offense1252%44%39.2187.34.824.152.7566%0%1.04

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1256%43%20.834.8240.86.911.62111.291.532%30%.33%1.8
TXST Defense1241%48% - - - - - - 3.511.827%44%.593%1.8
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1239%43% - - - - - - 6.311.731%29%.241%1.8
TXST Offense1246%38%20.835.9227.46.3111512.111.634%33%.32%1.9

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Troy's 2016 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #63
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7  #87
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #43

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy:    Texas State: -10.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: 1.1   Texas State: -25.5




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -10.25 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2016 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.5  #127
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4  #120
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.5  #126

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 31
Troy 26

Projected Total Points: 57
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2016 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Texas State41Troy48Texas State -7.5Troy53.5Over
202410/03Troy17Texas State38Texas State -14.5Texas State56.0Under
202310/28Texas State13Troy31Troy -6.5Troy53.0Under
202210/15Troy17Texas State14Troy -16.5Texas State47.0Under
202110/16Texas State28Troy31Troy -7.5Texas State49.0Over
202010/10Troy37Texas State17Troy -7.0Troy59.0Under
201911/16Texas State27Troy63Troy -7Troy65.0Over
201811/17Troy12Texas State7Troy -23Texas State47.5Under
201711/24Troy62Texas State9Troy -23.5Troy53.5Over
201611/26Texas State7Troy40Troy -26.5Troy57.5Under
201311/29Troy42Texas State28Troy -4.5Troy0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State144 Overs
Troy1076 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 64 - 73 - 31 - 4
Road Teams6 - 57 - 44 - 13 - 3

(#) TROY at (#) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTROYTXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #63 #127
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #100 #112
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Troy on Offense
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #87 #126
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Troy Run Game
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Troy Pass Game
CategoryCat
TROY OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Texas State on Offense
CategoryCatTXST OffTROY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #120 #43
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Texas State Run Game
CategoryCat
TXST OffTROY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
CategoryCatTXST OffTROY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Remains Poor G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Troy 26.5 (57.5)
Troy won at Texas State this year (40-7)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Texas State last year (48-41)
Texas State beat Troy in 2024 (38-17)
Troy beat Texas State in 2023 (31-13)

  
TROY's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TXST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD