SMU at East Carolina - 2016 Matchup Preview
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Saturday, November 12th 2016 (12:00 PM EST)
East Carolina -5 (63.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
SMU 55 - East Carolina: 31  (American Athletic)

 
Mustangs (5 - 7) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 28 - 36 (33 - 35 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ECU is playing their 4th straight game
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -3.5  (SP+ ECU -2)
Projected Score: SMU: 29 - ECU: 34 (63)
ECU Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
SMU Travel: 1124 miles, 1 hrs behind
Pirates (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (36 - 35 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 SMU at North Texas-12.068.0W 34 - 21UY
Sat 9/10 SMU at Baylor+28.572.0L 13 - 40UY
Sat 9/17 SMU vs Liberty-13.5
Fri 9/23 SMU vs TCU+24.068.0L 3 - 33UN
Sat 10/1 SMU at Temple+13.553.0L 20 - 45ON
Fri 10/7 SMU at Tulsa+11.068.0L 40 - 43OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22 SMU vs Houston+24.060.0W 38 - 16UY
Sat 10/29 SMU at Tulane+1.048.0W 35 - 31OY
Sat 11/5 SMU vs Memphis+6.565.0L 7 - 51UN
Sat 11/12 SMU at East Carolina+5.063.0W 55 - 31OY
Sat 11/19 SMU vs South Florida+12.573.0L 27 - 35UY
Sat 11/26 SMU vs Navy+8.065.5L 31 - 75ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
East Carolina's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 East Carolina vs Western Carolina-17.0
Sat 9/10 East Carolina vs NC State+3.559.0W 33 - 30OY
Sat 9/17 East Carolina at South Carolina+6.051.5L 15 - 20UY
Sat 9/24 East Carolina at Virginia Tech+9.557.0L 17 - 54ON
Sat 10/1 East Carolina vs UCF-5.561.0L 29 - 47ON
Sat 10/8 East Carolina at South Florida+20.068.5L 22 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22 East Carolina at Cincinnati+2.063.0L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/29 East Carolina vs UConn-7.554.0W 41 - 3UY
Sat 11/5 East Carolina at Tulsa+10.076.5L 24 - 45UN
Sat 11/12 East Carolina vs SMU-5.063.0L 31 - 55ON
Sat 11/19 East Carolina vs Navy+8.064.0L 31 - 66ON
Sat 11/26 East Carolina at Temple+19.058.5L 10 - 37UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2016)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU.1340%27.739%2.9316339%2643.04.1544%36.345%41%3.545222.2
ECU.1643%2743%3.0613242%3353.27.2746%36.146%44%3.7743.420.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1227.732.840.1%3.042224271632644.148%50%39%39%16%.13
ECU Defense1236.134.746.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 57%41%46%44%12%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1236.335.244%3.542.2 - - - - - 51%48%45%41%15%.15
ECU Offense122736.243.1%3.272244671323353.937%61%43%42%17%.16

Additional Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1230:3721.843%38%5.85222.25.72.4430.4
East Carolina1230:0823.839%60%543.420.74.50.7026.7
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1248%39%39.8163.34.114.062.9373%9%0.86
ECU Defense1257%46% - - - - .233.4274%7%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1251%45% - - - - .193.275%9%1.02
ECU Offense1237%43%33.7132.43.913.073.0676%12%0.79

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1250%39%20.738264712.82217.241.735%32%.257%1.8
ECU Defense1241%44% - - - - - - 5.351.729%34%.315%1.8
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1248%41% - - - - - - 18.121.632%33%.176%1.6
ECU Offense1261%42%29.946.2334.77.311.22612.231.635%35%.326%1.8

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: NR
SMU's Offense Rating: NR
SMU's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
SMU's 2016 Expected Record: -
SMU's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.8  #103
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #99
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.6  #89

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU:    East Carolina: -2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: -10.8   East Carolina: -9.0




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -2 NR
East Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
East Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
East Carolina's 2016 Expected Record: -
East Carolina's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0  #99
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #80
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.1  #100

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


SMU Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.8
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

SMU's 2016 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
East Carolina 34
SMU 29

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 35
SMU 25

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
East Carolina 34
SMU 33

Total Points: 67
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 36.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

East Carolina's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/12East Carolina10SMU31SMU -11.5SMU48.5Under
202011/28East Carolina52SMU38SMU -12East Carolina72.0Over
201911/09SMU59East Carolina51SMU -23East Carolina74.0Over
201611/12East Carolina31SMU55East Carolina -5SMU63.0Over
201510/03SMU23East Carolina49East Carolina -6.5East Carolina64.5Over
201410/04East Carolina45SMU24East Carolina -35.5SMU0
201011/26East Carolina38SMU45
200910/10SMU28East Carolina21
200610/21East Carolina38SMU21
200510/15SMU17East Carolina24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina534 Overs
SMU531 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 51 - 50 - 31 - 2
Road Teams5 - 55 - 12 - 13 - 0

(#) SMU at (#) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUECU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #103 #99
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #75 #82
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
SMU on Offense
CategoryCat
SMU OffECU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #99 #100
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
SMU Run Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffECU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
SMU Pass Game
CategoryCat
SMU OffECU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
East Carolina on Offense
CategoryCatECU OffSMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #80 #89
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
East Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
ECU OffSMU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
East Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCatECU OffSMU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 54° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 11
East Carolina -5.0 (63.0)
SMU won at East Carolina this year (55-31)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat East Carolina in 2023 (31-10)

  
SMU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

ECU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD