Navy at East Carolina - 2016 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen at East Carolina PiratesEast Carolina logo
Saturday, November 19th 2016 (4:00 PM EST)
Navy -8 (64.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Navy 66 - East Carolina: 31  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 38 - 31 (44 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 15 MPH
ECU 2nd straight Home Game
ECU is playing their 5th straight game
NAVY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -5.5  (SP+ NAVY -16)
Projected Score: NAVY: 37 - ECU: 35 (72)
NAVY Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
NAVY Travel: 239 miles
Pirates (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (36 - 35 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Navy's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Navy vs Fordham-24.0
Sat 9/10 Navy vs UConn-7.543.5W 28 - 24ON
Sat 9/17 Navy at Tulane-10.542.0W 21 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1 Navy at Air Force+10.550.5L 14 - 28UN
Sat 10/8 Navy vs Houston+17.052.0W 46 - 40OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22 Navy vs Memphis+2.057.0W 42 - 28OY
Fri 10/28 Navy at South Florida+9.066.0L 45 - 52OY
Sat 11/5 Navy vs Notre Dame-4.563.0W 28 - 27UN
Sat 11/12 Navy vs Tulsa-1.071.5W 42 - 40OY
Sat 11/19 Navy at East Carolina-8.064.0W 66 - 31OY
Sat 11/26 Navy at SMU-8.065.5W 75 - 31OY
Sat 12/3 Navy vs Temple-1.559.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 12/10 Navy vs Army-11.546.5L 17 - 21UN
Fri 12/23 Navy vs Louisiana Tech-1.067.0L 45 - 48ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
East Carolina's 2016 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 East Carolina vs Western Carolina-17.0
Sat 9/10 East Carolina vs NC State+3.559.0W 33 - 30OY
Sat 9/17 East Carolina at South Carolina+6.051.5L 15 - 20UY
Sat 9/24 East Carolina at Virginia Tech+9.557.0L 17 - 54ON
Sat 10/1 East Carolina vs UCF-5.561.0L 29 - 47ON
Sat 10/8 East Carolina at South Florida+20.068.5L 22 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22 East Carolina at Cincinnati+2.063.0L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/29 East Carolina vs UConn-7.554.0W 41 - 3UY
Sat 11/5 East Carolina at Tulsa+10.076.5L 24 - 45UN
Sat 11/12 East Carolina vs SMU-5.063.0L 31 - 55ON
Sat 11/19 East Carolina vs Navy+8.064.0L 31 - 66ON
Sat 11/26 East Carolina at Temple+19.058.5L 10 - 37UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2016)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY.3352%37.954%3.4631044%1284.57.2848%3145%49%4.0924.41.11.3
ECU.1643%2743%3.0613242%3353.27.2746%36.146%44%3.7743.420.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
ECU#49 (.22)43% (62)44% (71)3.07 (57)14743% (54)2533.79 (83)#64 (.16)40% (40)37% (11)43% (86)3.85 (76)612.21.6



Overall Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1437.944.252.1%4.571.1214383101285.978%21%54%44%11%.33
ECU Defense1236.134.746.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 57%41%46%44%12%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense143131.247.8%4.091.3 - - - - - 54%44%45%49%14%.28
ECU Offense122736.243.1%3.272244671323353.937%61%43%42%17%.16

Additional Stats 2016
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1431:1121.154%61%2.824.41.11.34.11.4231.8
East Carolina1230:0823.839%60%543.420.74.50.7026.7
Run Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1478%54%53310.15.961.323.4682%9%1.06
ECU Defense1257%46% - - - - .233.4274%7%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1454%45% - - - - .163.1879%8%0.99
ECU Offense1237%43%33.7132.43.913.073.0676%12%0.79

Pass Game Stats (2016)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1421%44%6.611.3128.111.419.397.41.924%38%.512%1.9
ECU Defense1241%44% - - - - - - 5.351.729%34%.315%1.8
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1444%49% - - - - - - 7.461.730%41%.516%1.8
ECU Offense1261%42%29.946.2334.77.311.22612.231.635%35%.326%1.8

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: NR
Navy's Offense Rating: NR
Navy's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Navy's 2016 Expected Record: -
Navy's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8  #52
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.8  #16
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #96

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy:    East Carolina: -2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 6.8   East Carolina: -9.0




East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -2 NR
East Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
East Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating:  #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
East Carolina's 2016 Expected Record: -
East Carolina's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0  #99
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #80
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.1  #100

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Navy Scoring
Offense: 37.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 44.2
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Navy's 2016 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 37
East Carolina 35

Total Points: 72

Based on Last 4 Games
East Carolina 38
Navy 37

Total Points: 75

Based on Entire Season
Navy 38
East Carolina 31

Total Points: 69
East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 36.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

East Carolina's 2016 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29East Carolina20Navy34East Carolina -2.5Navy54.0Push
202311/18Navy10East Carolina0Navy -2.5Navy30.5Under
202209/24East Carolina20Navy23East Carolina -16.5Navy48.5Under
202111/20Navy35East Carolina38East Carolina -3.5Navy46.0Over
202010/17East Carolina23Navy27Navy -3Navy55.5Under
201909/14Navy42East Carolina10Navy -7.5Navy53.0Under
201611/19East Carolina31Navy66Navy -8Navy64.0Over
201509/19Navy45East Carolina21Navy -1.5Navy58.0Over
201210/27East Carolina28Navy56
201110/22Navy35East Carolina38
201011/06East Carolina35Navy76
200609/02Navy28East Carolina23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
East Carolina203 Overs
Navy1084 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 84 - 43 - 21 - 2
Road Teams8 - 44 - 42 - 12 - 3

(#) NAVY at (#) ECU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYECU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #52 #99
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #117 #82
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Navy on Offense
CategoryCat
NAVY OffECU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #16 #100
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Navy Run Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffECU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Navy Pass Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffECU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
East Carolina on Offense
CategoryCatECU OffNAVY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #80 #96
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
East Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
ECU OffNAVY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
East Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCatECU OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ECU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 75° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 12
Navy 8.0 (64.0)
Navy won at East Carolina this year (66-31)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat East Carolina last year (34-20)
Navy beat East Carolina in 2023 (10-0)
Navy beat East Carolina in 2022 (23-20)

  
NAVY's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

ECU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD