Northern Illinois at Maryland Week 2 College Football Matchup Northern Illinois at Maryland Matchup - Week 2
Fri, Sep 5 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Maryland Stadium College Park, MD · Turf · 51,802 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 653 mi+1 hr TZ
9 20
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Northern Illinois
12
MD -17
Maryland
33
P&R Line Maryland -21.5
P&R Total O/U 45
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Maryland -17.0 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Northern Illinois wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Maryland -17.0
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Maryland · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Maryland 2nd straight Home Game
Northern Illinois 2025 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross-13.5W19–1748.5W19–17UN
Fri 9/5Northern Illinois at Maryland+17.0L9–2044.5L9–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Northern Illinois at Mississippi State+23.5L10–3848.5L10–38UN
Sat 9/27Northern Illinois vs San Diego State+1.5L3–641.5L3–6UN
Sat 10/4Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)+4.5L14–2538.5L14–25ON
Sat 10/11Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan-1.5L10–1648.5L10–16UN
Sat 10/18Northern Illinois at Ohio+10.5L21–4841.5L21–48ON
Sat 10/25Northern Illinois vs Ball State-6.5W21–741.5W21–7UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Northern Illinois at Toledo+14.5L3–4242.5L3–42ON
Wed 11/12Northern Illinois at Massachusetts-8.5W45–343.5W45–3OY
Tue 11/18Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+7.0L19–3539.5L19–35ON
Fri 11/28Northern Illinois vs Kent State-5.0L31–3545.0L31–35ON
Maryland 2025 Schedule
Maryland's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Maryland vs Florida Atlantic-16.5W39–757.5W39–7UY
Fri 9/5Maryland vs Northern Illinois-17.0W20–944.5W20–9UN
Sat 9/13Maryland vs Towson-28.5W44–1753.5W44–17ON
Sat 9/20Maryland at Wisconsin+10.5W27–1044.5W27–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Maryland vs Washington+5.5L20–2452.5L20–24UY
Sat 10/11Maryland vs Nebraska+7.0L31–3447.5L31–34OY
Sat 10/18Maryland at UCLA+3.5L17–2052.5L17–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Maryland vs Indiana+21.0L10–5550.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/8Maryland at Rutgers+1.5L20–3556.5L20–35UN
Sat 11/15Maryland at Illinois+15.5L6–2451.5L6–24UN
Sat 11/22Maryland vs Michigan+14.0L20–4546.5L20–45ON
Sat 11/29Maryland vs Michigan State+4.0L28–3849.5L28–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Maryland PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Maryland
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Maryland
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Maryland
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Northern Illinois #126
+0.174
Maryland #85
+0.334
Maryland Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #134
+0.164
Maryland #77
+0.419
Maryland Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #132
0.112
Maryland #104
0.141
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Maryland Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #121
+6.637
Maryland #100
+6.841
Maryland Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #132
+0.787
Maryland #100
+0.843
Maryland Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #118
72.7
Maryland #54
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Maryland Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Maryland Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Northern Illinois
-17.9
Maryland
4.5
Offense Rating
Northern Illinois
8.5
Maryland
17.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Northern Illinois
26.4
Maryland
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Northern Illinois Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Northern Illinois #123
0.00
Maryland #94
4.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #104
0.00
Maryland #120
0.00
Northern Illinois +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Northern Illinois Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Northern Illinois #1
80.0
Maryland #1
78.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #93
8.1
Maryland #80
6.7
Northern Illinois +1.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
31–38 (45%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Wesley Beschorner Yr 2 #1
DC Nick Benedetto Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Maryland
Mike Locksley #1
33–41 (45%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Pep Hamilton Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Williams Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself