Northern Illinois at Ohio Week 8 College Football Matchup Northern Illinois at Ohio Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 18 2025 · Week 8 · 🏟 Peden Stadium Athens, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 393 mi+1 hr TZ
21 48
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Northern Illinois
14
OHIO -10.5
Ohio
31
P&R Line Ohio -16.5
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Ohio -10.5 · O/U 41.5
Matchup Prediction
Ohio has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Ohio entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Ohio wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Ohio wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ohio -10.5
O/U 41.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Ohio Coming off BYE 🚌 Northern Illinois 2nd straight Road Game
Northern Illinois 2025 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross-13.5W19–1748.5W19–17UN
Fri 9/5Northern Illinois at Maryland+17.0L9–2044.5L9–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Northern Illinois at Mississippi State+23.5L10–3848.5L10–38UN
Sat 9/27Northern Illinois vs San Diego State+1.5L3–641.5L3–6UN
Sat 10/4Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)+4.5L14–2538.5L14–25ON
Sat 10/11Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan-1.5L10–1648.5L10–16UN
Sat 10/18Northern Illinois at Ohio+10.5L21–4841.5L21–48ON
Sat 10/25Northern Illinois vs Ball State-6.5W21–741.5W21–7UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Northern Illinois at Toledo+14.5L3–4242.5L3–42ON
Wed 11/12Northern Illinois at Massachusetts-8.5W45–343.5W45–3OY
Tue 11/18Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+7.0L19–3539.5L19–35ON
Fri 11/28Northern Illinois vs Kent State-5.0L31–3545.0L31–35ON
Ohio 2025 Schedule
Ohio's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Ohio at Rutgers+11.5L31–3446.5L31–34OY
Sat 9/6Ohio vs West Virginia+3.5W17–1058.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/13Ohio at Ohio State+28.0L9–3749.0L9–37UY
Sat 9/20Ohio vs Gardner-Webb-30.5W52–3555.0W52–35ON
Sat 9/27Ohio vs Bowling Green-7.5W35–2049.5W35–20OY
Sat 10/4Ohio at Ball State-14.0L14–2052.5L14–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Ohio vs Northern Illinois-10.5W48–2141.5W48–21OY
Sat 10/25Ohio at Eastern Michigan-11.5W28–2160.5W28–21UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/4Ohio vs Miami (OH)-2.5W24–2050.5W24–20UY
Tue 11/11Ohio at Western Michigan+1.5L13–1746.5L13–17UN
Tue 11/18Ohio vs Massachusetts-34.5W42–1453.5W42–14ON
Fri 11/28Ohio at Buffalo-7.0W31–2644.5W31–26ON
Tue 12/23Ohio vs UNLV+6.5W17–1064.5W17–10UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Ohio PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Northern Illinois #126
+0.164
Ohio #42
+0.394
Ohio Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #134
+0.207
Ohio #60
+0.461
Ohio Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #132
0.112
Ohio #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Ohio Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #121
+5.873
Ohio #84
+6.993
Ohio Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #132
+0.757
Ohio #41
+0.891
Ohio Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #118
72.7
Ohio #49
70.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ohio Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Ohio Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Northern Illinois
-17.9
Ohio
-10.3
Offense Rating
Northern Illinois
8.5
Ohio
7.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Northern Illinois
26.4
Ohio
17.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ohio Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Northern Illinois #123
0.20
Ohio #67
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #104
1.00
Ohio #102
1.00
Ohio +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ohio Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Northern Illinois #1
31.1
Ohio #1
48.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #93
46.4
Ohio #29
35.9
Ohio +17.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ohio
95.2 — 3.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ohio won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Ohio with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
31–38 (45%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Wesley Beschorner Yr 2 #1
DC Nick Benedetto Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ohio
Brian Smith #1
1–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Scott Isphording Yr 2 #1
DC John Hauser Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself