Northern Illinois at Toledo Week 11 College Football Matchup Northern Illinois at Toledo Matchup - Week 11
Wed, Nov 5 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Glass Bowl Toledo, OH · Turf · 26,248 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 266 mi+1 hr TZ
3 42
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Northern Illinois
8
Toledo
36
P&R Line Toledo -28
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Toledo -14.5 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Toledo has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Toledo entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Toledo wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Toledo wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Toledo -14.5
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Toledo · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Toledo Coming off BYE 🛋 Northern Illinois Coming off BYE
Northern Illinois 2025 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross-13.5W19–1748.5W19–17UN
Fri 9/5Northern Illinois at Maryland+17.0L9–2044.5L9–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Northern Illinois at Mississippi State+23.5L10–3848.5L10–38UN
Sat 9/27Northern Illinois vs San Diego State+1.5L3–641.5L3–6UN
Sat 10/4Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)+4.5L14–2538.5L14–25ON
Sat 10/11Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan-1.5L10–1648.5L10–16UN
Sat 10/18Northern Illinois at Ohio+10.5L21–4841.5L21–48ON
Sat 10/25Northern Illinois vs Ball State-6.5W21–741.5W21–7UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Northern Illinois at Toledo+14.5L3–4242.5L3–42ON
Wed 11/12Northern Illinois at Massachusetts-8.5W45–343.5W45–3OY
Tue 11/18Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+7.0L19–3539.5L19–35ON
Fri 11/28Northern Illinois vs Kent State-5.0L31–3545.0L31–35ON
Toledo 2025 Schedule
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Toledo at Kentucky+10.0L16–2448.5L16–24UY
Sat 9/6Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.5W45–2157.5W45–21OY
Sat 9/13Toledo vs Morgan State-33.5W60–054.5W60–0OY
Sat 9/20Toledo at Western Michigan-13.5L13–1448.5L13–14UN
Sat 9/27Toledo vs Akron-21.5W45–350.5W45–3UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Toledo at Bowling Green-10.5L23–2845.5L23–28ON
Sat 10/18Toledo vs Kent State-25.5W45–1048.5W45–10OY
Sat 10/25Toledo at Washington State-1.5L7–2844.5L7–28UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/5Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.5W42–342.5W42–3OY
Wed 11/12Toledo at Miami (OH)-6.5W24–344.5W24–3UY
Sat 11/22Toledo vs Ball State-29.5W38–945.5W38–9ON
Sat 11/29Toledo at Central Michigan-11.5W21–346.5W21–3UY
Tue 12/23Toledo vs Louisville+12.5L22–2744.5L22–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Toledo PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Northern Illinois #126
-0.034
Toledo #63
+0.369
Toledo Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #134
-0.081
Toledo #55
+0.471
Toledo Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #132
0.112
Toledo #5
0.202
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Toledo Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Northern Illinois #121
+5.490
Toledo #55
+7.305
Toledo Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #132
+0.678
Toledo #53
+0.877
Toledo Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Northern Illinois #118
72.7
Toledo #22
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Toledo Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Toledo Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Northern Illinois
-17.8
Toledo
1.8
Offense Rating
Northern Illinois
8.5
Toledo
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Northern Illinois
26.3
Toledo
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Toledo Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Northern Illinois #123
0.29
Toledo #41
1.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #104
1.14
Toledo #16
0.71
Toledo +0.86
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Toledo Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Northern Illinois #1
32.0
Toledo #1
59.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Northern Illinois #93
48.1
Toledo #31
30.0
Toledo +27.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Toledo
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Toledo
95.3 — 4.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Toledo won by 39
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Toledo with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
31–38 (45%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Wesley Beschorner Yr 2 #1
DC Nick Benedetto Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
72–40 (64%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Mike Hallett Yr 3 #1
DC Vince Kehres Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself